Free NBA Prop Bets Analysis 2/21/19

There is a lot more to sports betting than just over/under and moneylines. In addition to betting on teams, you can bet on players achieving or not achieving specific stats. For example, LeBron James might be a -120 favorite to score over 25 points, giving us the option to zone in and make some money. Using matchup factors, statistical trends, injuries, and other various data, we can have an edge when it comes to betting on player props.

Miami Heat @ Philadelphia 76ers

Ben Simmons Over 7.5 Assists (-145) 

Jimmy Butler Over 19.5 Points (-125)

With Joel Embiid out there are some ways to attack this game when it comes to player props. Ben Simmons over 7.5 assists is very viable, even against a Heat defense that registers as a tough matchup. With Embiid off the court, Simmons has averaged 10.1 assists per36. Jimmy Butler is also going to see a tick up on usage. He has averaged 9.6 FGM with Embiid off the court per36, and 27.8 points per game. Simmons, Harris, and Butler will look to lead the way against Miami.

Phoenix Suns @ Cleveland Cavaliers

Mikal Bridges Over 15.5 PTS+RBS+ASTS (-120)

Collin Sexton Over 22.5 PTS+REB+ASTS (-110) 

The overs are continuing here for me, as two of the worst teams in the league square off. Two bottom five defensive efficiencies should bring us plenty of gold. Looking at the younger names in this game, we have two that were playing quite well before the break. Bridges averaged a total of 17 PTS+REB+ASTS in his last ten games before the break, while Sexton sat at 23. Both are in enticing matchups, as each team ranks bottom ten in defensive efficiency against the respective positions.

Houston Rockets @ Los Angeles Lakers

LeBron James Under 9.5 Rebounds (-130)

Taking the under for anything with LeBron James can make the stomach feel a bit queasy, especially with him activating his playoff push. It starts tonight against Houston, who are also looking to better themselves before the playoffs. James is averaging 8.6 rebounds per game this season, 7.8 per game at home, and 8.1 in losses. Against Houston this season, he has averaged just five rebounds per game.

Sacramento Kings @ Golden State Warriors

Buddy Hield Over 20.5 Points (-115) 

DeMarcus Cousins Over 16.5 Points (-115)

Stephen Curry Under 28.5 (-125)

It is hard to ignore a few plays from this game, although the Warriors are 13-point favorites tonight at home. On the Kings side of things, Buddy Hield has played very well against Golden State this season. He has averaged 29 points per game in three meetings. He is averaging 21 field goal attempts per game, and 10.7 are from three. The volume for Hield will be there tonight if the Kings want to keep this game close. Hield has averaged over 20 points per game since December.

Golden State is beginning to ramp up DeMarcus Cousins’ minutes, and he will go against his former team tonight. Over the last five games before the break, Cousins averaged 14 points per game, hitting over 16.5 twice. Sacramento ranks 24th in defensive efficiency against opposing centers, which Cousins should be able to attack. He has a 27.6% usage rate with Golden State, averaging 10.7 FGA per game.

Stephen Curry can pop off for 30+ most nights, and the volume is always going to be there, so taking the under on 28.5 can come off as risky. However, the Warriors are 13-point favorites at home, where Curry isn’t needed for 40+. Yes, he has averaged 38.5 against Sacramento this season, which have all been within five points. I am banking on the blowout and some spread out scoring to keep Curry below 28.5.