Free NFL Week 1 Betting Picks: Rams at Panthers, Texans at Saints, Titans at Browns (FanDuel Sportsbook Lines)
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Rosters have been finalized, depth charts have been ordered, and now we are ready for Week 1. Chicago welcomes the Packers as home favorites Thursday night, but we will take a look at the weekend games. FanDuel Sportsbook has odds up for Week 1, which fall in line with about the same odds posted around the industry. A total of five games have an over/under of 50 or higher, and the game in Miami is the only over/under below 40. The Eagles and Seahawks are both double-digit favorites. After Week 1, there will be continued recaps to show transparency throughout the season.
Tennessee Titans @ Cleveland Browns
1 Unit – Under 45.5 (-110)
Public money is set on the over for the Browns and Titans this week, but I am looking the other way. If you are looking historically, this is a different Browns offense, that is expected to put up points this season. They added Odell Beckham over the offseason, and already started to look sharp offensively through the end of the season. On the flip side of this game, the Titans were a pedestrian offense last year, and leaned heavily on the run game. The offensive line was a strength for the Titans in 2018, but will be without Taylor Lewan for the first few weeks. Both these teams just about split a .500 record when it came to the over/under last season.
While I am a believer in the Browns offense this season, the Titans defense is being overlooked here in Week 1. They allowed 18.9 points per game last season, and allowed on average 2.9 red zone attempts per game. Cleveland’s defense is expected to take a jump, and the Titans are not an offense to worry that much about. They averaged 19.4 points per game, which was just behind Miami, and just ahead of Oakland. Cleveland averaged 22.4 points per game, but that number should jump a bit. We should see the offensive be stifled a bit, and more so on the Titans side. Based on the odds, Cleveland has a 25.5 implied total, while the Titans are at 20.0. The Titans were a poor road team averaging 16.5 points per game, compared to 22.2 on at home.
Houston Texans @ New Orleans Saints
1 Unit – Houston +6.5 (+100)
The Monday Night Football showdown is going to be a good one, as it kicks off the doubleheader on 9/9. The Saints are touchdown favorites at home, where they have been a tough team to beat at the SuperDome. Both these defenses have been nearly identical when it comes to their strengths and weaknesses. Both defenses struggled against the pass last season, and were stout against the run. New Orleans and Houston both allowed a ton of production to opposing WR1s, and these two teams have two of the best. Vegas is expecting a shootout in this one, as two of the top offenses are on display. I am expecting a back and forth affair, with little separating the two heading into the fourth quarter.
The Saints have oddly been vulnerable in Week 1 over the last few seasons, and are 0-5 ATS, and the same record goes for their last five games. While New Orleans has been historically good against the AFC South, the Texans have been the best competition over the last few seasons. This is not a usual meet up between the two, and both of these teams are fairly close in overall talent.
Los Angeles Rams @ Carolina Panthers
1 Unit – Los Angeles -2.5 (-115)
Los Angeles will start the season out on the east coast, taking on the Carolina Panthers. People tend to look at the west coast team at a disadvantage, but that isn’t something I weight in Week 1. The Rams were 6-4 ATS on the road last season, and have a 75% win probability based on Lineups.com odds. Los Angeles’ offense was one of the best in the league last season, averaging 30.8 points per game, and 25.9 points per game on the road. Carolina’s offense is still a question mark heading into the season, but more so on the consistency front. The Panthers defense is not one to trust in Week 1, even at home. This secondary doesn’t matchup well with the Rams wideouts, and despite the Todd Gurley news over the offseason, they still have a good running game.
The Rams boasted the 9th best pass defense last season, and I expect them to jump out to a lead to push Carolina into throwing the ball more. The Panthers have some talented weapons, but this is a defense that did well against pass-catching backs and have solid corners. On both sides of the ball the Rams have a clear edge, and should come away with a victory on the road.
San Francisco 49ers @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
1 Unit – Tampa Bay ML (-104)
San Francisco is back and healthy heading into the season, and have a few new bodies as well. Neither of these teams were good last season, and neither will be threatening for the division this season. The 49ers failed to win a game on the road last season, going 0-8, and were 2-10 against the NFC. The Bucs weren’t much better going 4-8 against the conference, but were 4-4 at home. This will be the first game under Bruce Arians, who is expected to lift this offense to a new level. The talent is there in the passing game, but just about every other area needs some work. This game is essentially a pick’em, which comes at no surprise. Despite the Bucs having a bottom ten defense coming into the year, I am not terribly high on the 49ers offense heading into the early stages of the season. Jimmy Garoppolo has a lot to prove, and a road game with a questionable receiving core outside of George Kittle leaves us some questions.
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