Free NFL Week 9 Betting Picks: Packers at Chargers, Browns at Broncos, Patriots at Ravens (FanDuel Sportsbook Lines)
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Week 8 brought the tilt, and also a few lessons to be learned. Overall the Giants-Lions over was the only winning bet, as Houston failed to cover at home against Oakland, and the same goes for the Colts at home against Denver. The Jets struggled again, and couldn’t cover the spread against Jacksonville. About halfway through the season, we are 16-20, sitting at -1.66 units. Time to look at Week 9 on FanDuel Sportsbook.
Green Bay Packers @ Los Angeles Chargers
1 Unit – Green Bay -3.5 (-110)
1 Unit – Aaron Jones Any Time Touchdown Scorer (-130)
Green Bay has found their form, and the Chargers are on the opposite end of the spectrum when it comes to their recent play. This could very well be a Packers home game despite the travels out west. The Chargers home fanbase is not an appealing threat to create any sort of home field advantage, and the Packers fans are all over the place. The Packers are 6-2 ATS this season, and 3-0 ATS on the road. They are averaging 26.2 points per game, compared to the Chargers 20 points per game. Los Angeles’ defense continues to struggle, and the offense hasn’t been clicking either.
Aaron Jones comes in as a -130 touchdown scorer at any point in the game, and I like to grab that here. He is averaging 3.1 touches per game in the red zone, and overall is averaging 18.5 touches per game. He has two games this season where he didn’t score, and overall has 11 total touchdowns. His work through the air is also a plus here, seeing 42 targets on the season, with three receiving touchdowns. Los Angeles has allowed a touchdown to a running back in seven of eight weeks, with the exception being against Miami.
Cleveland Browns @ Denver Broncos
1 Unit – Cleveland Browns -3.5 (-110)
1 Unit – Nick Chubb Over 91.5 Rushing Yards (-112)
1 Unit – Nick Chubb Over 20.5 Rushing Attempts (-102)
This game is about a Nick Chubb takeover for me, as the Browns have an advantage with the ground game. The question mark is if they can use it enough, as Kitchens continues to baffle us with his play calling. The Broncos are basically starting a third string quarterback this week, and the Browns finally have gotten healthy within the secondary. Denver traded Emmanuel Sanders, and do not have a ton of playmakers outside of Courtland Sutton. Cleveland should begin to get their season back on track with a softer schedule, and it starts here in Week 9. I will look for them to control with the ground game, which I why Chubb is a prime player prop option this week. Looking at how offenses attack Denver, it is on the ground. They also generally have a positive game script. Chubb has averaging 19.1 rushing attempts per game this season, and has seen 92% of the team’s rushing attempts.
New England Patriots @ Baltimore Ravens
1 Unit – New England Patriots -3 (-105)
1 Unit – Lamar Jackson Over 59.5 Rushing Yards (-112)
This will be a test for the New England Patriots, but ultimately it will come down to the defenses where New England has a clear advantage. While this was always a closer defensive matchup, the Ravens defense ranks 13th against the pass and 21st against the run. The Patriots are obviously bringing a top ten rank to each. The Patriots are 6-2 ATS and 3-1 ATS on the road this season. Baltimore has failed to cover the spread in three home games, and are 2-4-1 overall. Lamar Jackson is the threat here, and once again his rushing yards prop seems low. Jackson has topped 59.5 rushing yards in all but two games this season. His rushing attempts over the last three games are 14, 19, and 14.
Houston Texans @ Jacksonville Jaguars
1 Unit – Over 46 (-110)
1 Unit – Deshaun Watson Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (-132)
1 Unit – Gardner Minshew Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (-118)
London games can certainly throw a wrench into how things should go. The over/under has been up and down over the last few London games, but this is a game where two offenses can capitalize on the opposing defenses weaknesses. Houston ranks 23rd against the pass, and the defense continues to be banged up. 46 Isn’t a bad number here in what should be a fairly close game, especially if Houston can dictate the pace and jump out to a lead. Both quarterbacks to hit over 1.5 passing touchdowns is also in play here. Gardner Minshew has all but three games where he didn’t score two or more touchdowns. 87% of Jacksonville’s touchdowns have come through the air. Watson has been a bit lopsided in when his passing touchdowns have come, but is in a good spot with no Jalen Ramsey this time.
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