Georgia vs. Auburn: Prediction, Best Bets, Odds (9/30/23)

#1 Georgia travels to face unranked Auburn this Saturday (9/30/23). Get Georgia vs. Auburn odds, predictions, and picks; our best bet is Georgia -14 points.

Georgia vs. Auburn Prediction & Best Bet

Auburn’s offense cannot effectively move the ball downfield in the slightest. Of the 134 quarterbacks with at least 60 dropbacks, Payton Thorne ranks 107th in adjusted completion percentage and dead last in pressure to sack ratio at a monstrous 52.4 percent per PFF. Essentially, he’s struggling to string together passes while taking a plethora of drive-killing sacks. That combination is never a recipe for success, especially against this Georgia defense.

Georgia boasts a vaunted secondary led by corners Tykee Smith, Kamari Lassiter, and Daylen Everette. Malaki Starks is one of the best safeties in the nation too. Overall, this Georgia secondary ranks 7th in coverage grade per PFF and should confuse Thorne all game.

To make matters worse, top running back Damari Alston is out for Auburn. Brian Battie flashed intriguing potential once Alston went out, and Thorne himself is a threat to run. However, Georgia’s defensive line is allowing a measly 87 rush yards per game and 3.5 yards per rush. This line is built to stop the run, which doesn’t bode well for Auburn. Thorne will have to take chances and throw the ball for Auburn to cover.

On the other side, quarterback Carson Beck ranks 15th in adjusted completion percentage and 21st in overall passing grade per PFF. He only owns one turnover worthy play across 129 attempts, so he’s exceptional at taking care of the ball. At worst, Beck’s a competent game manager that can avoid costly mistakes against Auburn’s excellent secondary. At his best, he can slice and dice. Factor in Georgia’s run game and superior weapons, and they should comfortably win this matchup.

Georgia vs. Auburn Prediction & Best Bet: Georgia -14

Georgia vs. Auburn Betting Odds

Georgia backers will immediately want to grab a -14 line, while Auburn backers can find +15 on other sportsbooks. Both sides have more favorable options than usual here. For Auburn’s +460 moneyline to hold a positive expected value, they must win this game about 17 percent of the time. The 45.5 over under in this SEC battle is on the lower side for the Saturday slate.

Georgia vs. Auburn Key Matchups

Which team will win the key matchups and boost cover chances?

Brock Bowers vs. Auburn Coverage

When Bowers enters the 2024 Draft, he will be one of the greatest tight end prospects in history. His reliable hands, size, coordination, and open field agility deem him a devastating weapon for Beck. Of the 200 wide receivers and tight ends with at least 20 targets, Bowers is 13th in yards after the catch per reception and 11th in missed tackles forced (per PFF). For Auburn to keep this contest close, they must contain Bowers and make strong open field tackles.

Auburn Offensive Line vs. Georgia Pass Rush

Left tackle Dillon Wade and left guard Gunner Britton have only allowed a combined one sack and two pressures per PFF, so that side of the line is rock-solid. However, the right guard and tackle have allowed a combined five sacks and twelve pressures. Auburn will need the entire line to give Thorne time to throw and room to run, so it’s imperative that the unit wins the overall matchup. Otherwise, Auburn’s projected offensive output looks bleak.

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Braxton has been covering the NBA for Lineups since the 2022 season. He's worked with multiple collegiate coaching staffs regarding analytics and scouting, which has allowed him to understand the game on a deeper level. Braxton is also a contributor at Thunderous Intentions.

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