Get New York Giants vs. Philadelphia Eagles player prop picks & odds for the (1/21/23) matchup
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New York Giants vs. Philadelphia Eagles Player Prop Picks
The Divisional Round of the NFL playoffs features a three-match between NFC East division rivals with a spot in the conference championship game up for grabs. The top-seeded Philadelphia Eagles host the No. 6 seed New York Giants on Saturday, January 21 at 8:15pm.
While the Eagles went 2-0 against the Giants in the regular season, the second win came in a week 18 game against the Giants’ backups, as New York had already locked in its playoff seeding. The Eagles dominated the first matchup, particularly on the ground, where Miles Sanders racked up a season-high 144 rushing yards on 17 carries while Jalen Hurts added 77 on seven carries.
The Eagles also shut down the Giants’ rushing offense, holding Saquon Barkley to just 28 yards on nine carries. Barkley was in a bit of a slump heading into that game, having averaged just 41.3 yards on 2.8 yards per carry in his previous three games. He has been slightly better over the four games since then, averaging 70.5 yards on 5.3 yards per carry.
What does that mean for the prop lines for players like Hurts, Sanders and Barkley this time around? Can we find some value there, or should we look elsewhere to make some player prop picks in this playoff matchup?
Let’s take a look at the player prop bets I like the most in this Giants vs. Eagles matchup.
Saquon Barkley under 70.5 rushing yards (-115 at DraftKings)
Barkley may have had only 53 yards on nine carries last week against the Giants, but he looked like he had regained the explosiveness he showed early on in this resurgent season for him. That was never more true than on his 28-yard touchdown run in the first quarter.
SAQUON TO THE HOUSE 🏠
📺: FOX pic.twitter.com/GvPirYvcUl
— New York Giants (@Giants) January 15, 2023
Barkley is by far the Giants’ most dangerous weapon offensively, and the Eagles know that. Just like they did in week 14, they are going to focus on stopping Barkley and forcing Daniel Jones to beat them through the air. With the Giants’ depleted wide receiver corps and the Eagles’ dominant pass defense (1st in DVOA, 1st in EPA), it would make too much sense for that not to be part of their game plan.
Barkley’s production dropped off considerably in the second half of the season. Through the first nine games, he rushed for at least 70 yards eight times and had four 100-yard games. Through the next nine games, he had only two games with over 70 yards, and none with over 100.
On the other hand, the Eagles’ run defense has improved considerably over the second half of the season. Over the first 10 weeks, their defense ranked 31st in EPA per play on rush plays, but over the final eight weeks they ranked 10th. That improvement can be attributed partially to the additions of veteran defensive tackles Linval Joseph and Ndamukong Suh, who both joined the team prior to week 11.
Game script could also be working against Barkley’s rushing production in this matchup if the Eagles are able to get out to an early lead. More passing situations means Barkley might get more involved through the air than on the ground. That has been the case for Barkley of late. Over his last four games, he has 20 catches on 28 targets, both of which are higher marks than any other four-game stretch this season.
Of course, Barkley is the type of talent that could explode for a big game at any time, regardless of the matchup or game script. However, I don’t like his chances of doing that in this game, so I am taking the under.
Dallas Goedert over 47.5 receiving yards (-120 at BetMGM)
Last week, the Giants were able to limit the Vikings’ Justin Jefferson to just 47 receiving yards on seven catches. However, tight end T.J. Hockenson torched them for 129 yards on 10 catches.
The Giants gave up 54.2 receiving yards and 5.2 receptions per game to tight ends this season, which was the 10th most and 9th most in the league, respectively. That was before the big game by Hockenson.
Goedert averaged 4.6 receptions and 58.5 receiving yards per game this season. He eclipsed 47 yards in seven of his 12 games, and hit the over on his receiving yards prop line in nine out of 12. Given the struggles of the Giants’ linebackers to cover big, athletic tight ends this season, I expect a strong performance by Goedert in this game.
DeVonta Smith over 5.5 receptions (+115 at DraftKings)
Smith ended the season on a tear, going over 100 receiving yards in four of his last six games. During that span he averaged 6.5 receptions on 9.5 targets for 97.8 yards per game. Prior to that he was averaging 5.1 receptions on 7.2 targets for 55.3 yards. He finished the season as the Eagles’ new franchise record-holder for single-season catches by a wide receiver with 95.
Smith had at least six receptions nine times this season and went over his receiving yards prop line 13 times, including all of those final six games. Sportsbooks have started adjusting to Smith’s late-season surge by setting the line at 5.5 this week, after it was 4.5 for 11 weeks in a row. That doesn’t scare me away from betting on Smith to continue his recent trend.
Despite Smith’s production, A.J. Brown is still the wide receiver that demands the most attention from opposing defenses. That benefits Smith, who rarely faces double teams and generally will match up with the weaker of an opponent’s cornerbacks. For the Giants that is Fabian Moreau, who allowed a passer rating of 100.5 when targeted this season.
Boston Scott anytime TD (+390)
Finally, we cannot write about player prop bets in this matchup without taking the Boston Scott anytime touchdown. For the uninitiated, Scott has been an absolute Giant Killer in his career. There is no good explanation for it, but for some reason the Eagles just love using Scott against the Giants, and he consistently delivers for them.
In his eight career games against the Giants, he has gained more yards (414 rushing, 222 receiving) and scored more touchdowns (10) than he has against any other team. Those numbers account for 35.2% of his career yardage and 55.5% of his career touchdowns in just 12.5% of his career games.
Last season, Scott tallied 27 carries, 105 yards and two touchdowns against the Giants, and just 60 carries for 268 yards in his other 14 games. This season he has 15 carries for 87 yards and two touchdowns against the Giants, and 39 rushes for 195 yards and one touchdown in his other 13 games.
So yeah, something about playing the Giants brings out the best in Boston Scott, and we can capitalize on that in the betting market. I hit on this pick in week 14 at +900 odds, and again in week 18 with +400 odds, so you better believe I am looking to make it a threepeat.