New York Giants vs. San Francisco 49ers NFL First Touchdown: Expert Picks & Predictions (9/21/23)

The New York Giants face the San Francisco 49ers in Thursday Night Football. Check out below for Giants vs. 49ers First Touchdown best bets, as well as a first TD search tool to optimize odds shopping.

The goal of the First Touchdown prop is to identify which players will score the first touchdown of the game. Who will accomplish this in the Giants vs. 49ers contest? Given the offenses and defenses involved, is it wise to completely fade the Giants?

George Kittle First Touchdown (+1100 BMGM)

Kittle hasn’t had a dominant performance yet; he’s at 49 yards on nine targets across the first two weeks. However, Kittle won’t be quiet forever, and it’s impossible to ignore the fact that he easily led the 49ers in red zone targets and touchdowns last season once Brock Purdy took over. At +1100, we only need Kittle to score the first touchdown about eight percent of the time. 

Meanwhile, it’s extremely difficult to fathom New York scoring the first touchdown. This lifeless Giants offense has been absolutely abysmal, and they are now operating without Saquon Barkley. Plus, this nasty 49ers defense is a machine that should lock down Daniel Jones and company. 

Christian McCaffrey First Touchdown (+330 BetRivers)

In 13 career regular season games with the 49ers, McCaffrey has scored 12 touchdowns. His elite vision, explosiveness and pass-catching ability allow him to score in a variety of ways, and San Francisco never shies away from feeding him the ball. McCaffrey faces a Giants defense that allowed the second highest yards per rush last season, and they sit at the eight most so far this season. Whether it’s a breakaway run or successful red zone attempt, “CMC” should make quick work of New York. Once again, it would be astonishing if New York scored first, so backing numerous 49ers is the wise move. 

The odds are ugly, but they barely hold enough value to me at an implied odds of 23.26 percent. I would play this down to +300 before hesitating to back McCaffrey here.

Brandon Aiyuk First Touchdown (+800 BMGM)

Move over Deebo Samuel – the 49ers have a new number one receiver. Aiyuk exploded for 129 yards and two touchdowns (including the First TD) in Week One, and he had a solid Week Two despite dealing with an injury. Aiyuk currently leads San Francisco in target share, air yards share, yards per route run, and contested catches (per PFF). Aiyuk should dominate against these vulnerable Giants corners, and Purdy will be looking his way if not Kittle or McCaffrey. 

For Aiyuk to have a positive expected value, he must score the first touchdown about 11 percent of the time.

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Braxton has been covering the NBA for Lineups since the 2021-22 season. He's worked with multiple collegiate coaching staffs about analytics and scouting, which has allowed him to understand the game on a deeper level. Braxton is also a contributor at Thunderous Intentions and NBA Analysis Network.

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