Green Bay Packers Super Bowl Odds 2022
After a crazed series of events, Packers fans are thanking the football gods for the return of Aaron Rodgers. Without the defending MVP, the hopes of the Green Bay faithful rested entirely on Jordan Love’s shoulders, who has yet to start an NFL game.
In the end, Rodgers is back at training camp, and he’s the biggest reason why the Packers will make a playoff push this year. Anything is possible with him under center, explaining why the Packers have the fourth-best Super Bowl odds and the second-best NFC Championship odds.
While they have one of the toughest schedules in the NFL, the Packers have largely improved a roster that finished top 10 in both total offense and total defense last season. But, while they’ve made back-to-back NFC Championship games, NFL fans are still asking if it’s enough to get over the hump.
Green Bay Packers Team Futures Odds
Packers Super Bowl Odds:
To Win NFC:
To Win NFC North:
The biggest coaching change for the Packers is the replacement of defensive coordinator Mike Pettine for Joe Barry. Something, personally, I find quite strange, considering the success of the Packers defense last season and the fact that Barry’s four stints as DC have been largely unsuccessful.
Additionally, the Packers promoted Maurice Drayton to special teams coordinator. Drayton has spent the past three seasons with Green Bay as an assistant special teams coach.
The biggest return for the Packers is running back Aaron Jones, who Green Bay signed to a four-year, $48 million extension. He’ll be joined in the backfield by AJ Dillon, who’s sure to see more snaps after Jamaal Williams’ signed with Detroit.
However, neither of them will see much success if David Bakhtiari doesn’t return to full strength after suffering an ACL tear late last season. The Packers lost All-Pro center Corey Linsey to the Chargers in free agency, and while they used two of their draft picks to bolster the line’s depth, any team would struggle with switching out their top two offensive linemen.
Defensively, the secondary depth should see a boost with first-round draft pick Eric Stokes, a cornerback out of Georgia. Not that they need it, as the Packers finished seventh in passing yards allowed per game in 2020.
Instead, the biggest questions will be in the front seven, who struggled with pressuring the quarterback and stopping the run. The hope is that fifth-round pick T.J. Slayton (DL, Florida) and sixth-round pick Isaiah McDuffie (LB, Boston College) will produce immediately.
Packers Odds Analysis
I don’t see much value in the Packers from any angle.
From my analysis, Green Bay is priced correctly in both the Super Bowl and Conference Championship market. Their win total of 10 may seem low after a 13-win season, but it’s heavily juiced to the over (-150), and the Packers are staring down a much more difficult schedule (15th hardest SOS in 2020; fourth hardest SOS in 2021).
The Packers are also correctly priced to win their division, and I don’t see any other NFC North team challenging them for the throne. However, you’re probably better off taking a shot with the Vikings at +250, as they’re due for positive regression and could easily surprise the Packers.
I’d consider a play on either Rodgers over 4550 yards (-115) or over 35.5 passing TDs (-115). While HC Matt LaFleur loves to run the ball, trouble on the OL might force a few more pass calls than normal. Plus, the additions of versatile WR Amari Rodgers (drafted out of Clemson) and old friend WR Randall Cobb (traded from Houston) provide an intriguing amount of upside.
Reasons Why Green Back Packers Win the Super Bowl
There’s one reason and one reason alone: Aaron Rodgers.
This is a talented roster, but there are several question marks for the Packers this upcoming season. As such, Rodgers will have to put together another supernatural season for the Packers to win the Lombardi.
Which Rodgers is fully capable of doing. If David Bakhtiari does return to full health, this offense can stand toe-to-toe with anyone. Rodgers will be complemented by a run game that should see no regression after averaging 132 yards per game last season. Rodgers can again destroy defenses with play-action – the Packers were a top 10 offense in both play-action plays called (147), and play-action yards gained (1160).
When LaFleur does call play-action, Rodgers has an array of dangerous offensive weapons. For example, DaVante Adams, arguably the best WR in the NFL, caught 115 passes for 1374 yards and 18 touchdowns in just 14 games last season. I mentioned Amari Rodgers and Randall Cobb, but Marquez Valdes-Scantling shouldn’t go unnoticed either, as he led the NFL in yards per catch last season (20.9).
Plus, Rodgers has a dangerous red-zone duo in TE’s Robert Tunyan and Mercedes Lewis. Specifically, Tonyan caught 88.6% of his 59 targets and recorded a whopping 11 touchdowns.
Before Super Bowl Sunday, the Packers only real competition should come from the Buccaneers. While Tampa Bay returned every single starter from their Super Bowl run, it’s always questionable whether a team can repeat championship success.
As such, maybe the Packers should be the favorite to win the NFC. That would put them just one win away from their first Super Bowl in a decade.
Reasons Why Green Bay Packers Doesn’t Win the Super Bowl
As mentioned, there are a bunch of question marks.
Those questions start in the trenches, where there are vulnerabilities in both lines. David Bakhtiari might not get healthy, which would leave the offensive line in shambles. Meanwhile, the front seven needs to round back into their 2019 form, where edge rushers Za’Darius Smith and Preston Smith both finished in the top 15 in QB hits (37 for Za’Darius Smith, second in NFL; 23 for Preston Smith, 14th in NFL).
The coaching is a major concern. LaFleur has proven he’s a more-than-capable head coach, but will he be prone to making massive decision-making errors like in the NFC Championship game. Plus, I’m not sure Barry is the right man for the defensive coordinator position. I mentioned how his previous stints were unsuccessful, but here’s just how unsuccessful they were:
|Year||Team||Total Yards Allowed Rank|
For a defense that needs re-ignition upfront, it’s questionable how Barry’s appointment will help accomplish that.
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