Green Bay Packers vs. Chicago Bears (12/15/19): NFL Betting Lines, Picks

Last Week: 9-3-1
All Time Results: 87-79-2, +10.81 Units

Green Bay Packers -5 (+100) vs. Chicago Bears – .34 Units

Packers Have Our Number

I didn’t ask to be born. Not in Evanston Township Hospital.  Not in Chicago, or anywhere.

Nonetheless, I find myself alive in a world where the Green Bay Packers beat the Chicago Bears every single year.

Since Mike Ditka left as head coach of the Bears at the end of the 1992 season, the Packers are 74% (40-14) SU & 64% (34-19-1) against the spread in this series.  Green Bay wins by an average of 7.5 points per game and covers by an average of 3.5 points per game.

That trend means nothing! New players, new coaches!

Same towns. Same energies.

green bay packersEvery new regime that comes through Chicago brings its own hopes of change atop the NFC Central, but nothing ever changes.  (Yes, it is the NFC Central).  This includes Bears HC Matt Naggy, who looked like a world-beater out of the gates last year, earning an ATS win in Lambeau in his first game ever as an NFL head coach.

Turns out brand new coaches in Chicago often have success against Green Bay, perhaps because the players and franchise are inspired by the reset. In their first time playing the Packers, New Bears coaches are 4-2 ATS with an ATS margin of +7.1.  In all games following, they are 17-32-1 (34%) ATS.

When the Bears beat the Packers soundly at home in December last year, many wondered if the curse had been lifted and the rivalry reset, now that they had covered two straight against an Aaron Rodgers lead Packers team. In the opening game of this season, I bet no.

The Packers are just better. From the bottom up. Football means more to the area and they go about building a franchise the right way.  The rivalry means more to the town.  Everybody from Rodgers to the equipment manager steps up when it counts.

Chicagoans care.  Cheese Heads live and die with for this.

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Green Bay Packers -2.5 (-185) vs. Chicago Bears – .33 Units

Green Bay Packers (-210) vs. Chicago Bears – .33 Units

Matt Lafleur Effect

Likely springing from that rare loss to the Bears last December, Green Bay underwent a much more rare regime change.  I like their new coach Matt LaFleur. He springs from a good tree, one on which I like to consider myself a budding leaf.

While this is more of a macro pick, my power ratings support the play.  If we give Green Bay 4 points for HFA, and the Packers have a 3 point edge in talent, the spread should be closer to -7 then -5.  Moreover, I think it is far more likely the Packers are 2 points better than the Bears than it is that they are the same, or that the Bears have any sort of edge.

Putting the majority of my wager on lines available Under -3 because Green Bay under Lafleur has been a team that eschews risk and therefore margin.  We’ve seen this team race out to double-digit leads against the Vikings, Cowboys, Panthers, and Redskins – only to hold on to a slim advantage in the 4th quarter. Nothing wrong with it as a strategy for an NFL coach, but a major concern for us as sports bettors.

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Born in Chicago, born for Las Vegas, Mackenzie is a graduate of Yale University with a BA in English & Creative Writting. Mackenzie runs AlternativeStats.blog, which seeks to by-pass the minutiae of commonly cited sports statistics and expose the heart of what drives athletic success. After several successful years investing in Las Vegas real estate, Mackenzie is excited to transition in 2019 into betting on sports full time, as well as documenting his thought process as he further learns the craft.

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