Green Bay Packers vs. Chicago Bears Player Props (10/17/21)
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The Packers and Bears are one of the oldest rivalries in the NFL, but Green Bay has dominated its divisional rival lately with wins in nine of their last ten meetings. Aaron Rodgers will be fired up to head into Chicago and take on the Bears’ rookie quarterback Justin Fields. With plenty of intrigue surrounding this NFC North matchup, let’s take a look at some of the best values on player prop bets.
Green Bay Packers vs. Chicago Bears Player Prop Search Tool
Aaron Rodgers Under 257.5 Passing Yards
Aaron Rodgers torched the NFL en route to the MVP award last season, and he only averaged 225.5 passing yards per game against the Bears. He has not had 257.5+ passing yards against Chicago since 2018. This season, the Bears’ defense has been electric and ranks fourth in the NFL in pass defense DVOA per Football Outsiders. Rodgers has not been a volume player this year with over 257.5 passing yards in just two of five games so far. Rodgers has averaged just 248.2 passing yards per game this season, and I don’t expect a colossal volume game in what is projected to be one of the lowest-scoring games of the week.
Davante Adams Longest Reception Over 28.5 Yards
While Adams has scored just two touchdowns through five games, a low mark considering he had 18 in 14 games last year, his yards per reception has jumped from 11.9 in 2020 to 13.8 this year. Davante Adams has long receptions of 31, 50, and 59 yards in different games this season and leads the NFL with a 37.4% target share. The Bears rank as the third-worst defense in DVOA against WR1s per Football Outsiders, and sophomore Jaylon Johnson is not ready for a matchup against one of the best wideouts in the game. I prefer the longest reception bet to the over on receptions or yards, though, as I have concerns about limited volume overall in this game.
A.J. Dillon Over 1.5 Receptions
The Packers’ second-year running back has been coming into his own in recent weeks and has played on 36.7% of the team’s total snaps over the past two weeks after not passing 30% in any of the first three weeks. Dillon showed he’s deserving of a more significant role in the offense last week when he had 12 touches for 79 yards from scrimmage and a touchdown, and he was an excellent receiver with four receptions last week. Against a ferocious Chicago pass rush and behind an injured offensive line, Aaron Rodgers will likely be looking to check down more in this game. Assuming Dillon’s snap share continues to trend up, he should see a handful of targets this week.
