Green Bay Packers vs. Detroit Lions NFL Player Props & Picks (11/6/22)

Get Green Bay Packers vs. Detroit Lions player prop picks & odds for the (11/06/22) matchup

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Green Bay Packers vs. Detroit Lions Player Prop Picks

In an NFC North showdown, the Green Bay Packers (3-5) visit the Detroit Lions (1-6) on Sunday, November 6. The Lions have put up some of the best offensive numbers in the league this season, but they’ve also allowed the most yards and the most points per game of any team. Aaron Rodgers and the Packers have been disappointing on offense this season, but have been stingy on defense, particularly against the pass. What does that mean when it comes to picking player props in this matchup?

This game has one of the highest totals on the week 9 slate, so oddsmakers expect these teams to put up some yards and some points, but where will they come from?

Let’s take a look at the player prop bets I like the most in this Packers vs. Lions matchup.

Jared Goff under 249.5 passing yards (-115)

The biggest strength of the 2022 Packers has been their passing defense, which ranks 2nd in the league allowing 174.8 yards per game. Goff will test that unit as he enters this week ranking 10th in the league with 272 yards per game. That number has been largely driven by game script, as the Lions have found themselves in several high-scoring games where Goff has been forced to air it out to keep up.

Could a similar game script play out in this matchup? It certainly could, but this Packers offense is not as dangerous as it has been in the past, nor is it as explosive as other offenses like the Eagles, Dolphins and Seahawks that have scored at will against this Lions’ defense.

The Packers are much more vulnerable against the run, where they rank 29th in the league allowing 141.3 rushing yards per game. Barring a significant negative game script, I expect the Lions to lean early and often on their 10th-ranked rushing offense led by the duo of D’Andre Swift and Jamaal Williams. I also expect the Packers to lean heavily on the run against the Lions’ 30th-ranked rushing defense. If both teams rely on the ground game, that will slow down the pace and keep the overall offensive numbers low.

The Packers have only allowed three quarterbacks to hit the over on their passing yards prop this season, and only two have exceeded 219 yards. They held Josh Allen to just 218 passing yards last week. Goff also lost one of his favorite targets in tight end T.J. Hockenson, who was traded to the Minnesota Vikings this week.

That are just too many factors pushing me towards the under on Goff’s passing yardage this week.

Amon-Ra St. Brown over 70.5 receiving yards (-105)

Despite being on the Goff under this week, I still like St. Brown to go over his prop line of 70.5 yards. While the Packers have been tough against the pass, their opponent’s top wide receiver has still been able to be productive, going for at least 70 yards in five out of eight games and hitting the over in eight out of eight games.

As mentioned above, Hockenson was just traded away from this offense, and last season Hockenson’s absence from week 13 forward was a big reason for St. Brown’s late-season surge. During that five-game stretch, St. Brown averaged 8.2 catches on 11 targets for 94.8 yards per game, including a 108-yard game against the Packers in week 18. With Hockenson now permanently out of the picture, St. Brown looks poised to resume the target monster numbers he was posting in Hockenson’s absence, as well as in the first two weeks of 2022 before suffering ankle and head injuries that limited him for four straight weeks.

St. Brown appeared to be fully healthy last week when he saw 95% of offensive snaps and a 27% target share. If you ignore the three games during which St. Brown left early or was limited due to injury, St. Brown has at least 7 catches and at least 10 targets in his last nine consecutive games, and he’s exceeded 70 yards in 7 of those 9 (with 64 and 69 in the other two). All he needs is the volume to produce, and he should get the volume this week to hit the over.

Aaron Jones over 64.5 rushing yards (-115)

As mentioned above, this game features two of the bottom-four rushing defenses in the league, and I expect both teams to put up plenty of yards on the ground. On the Lions’ side, with D’Andre Swift still recovering from an ankle injury and Jamaal Williams continuing to look strong as the number two back, it’s too difficult to know which running back to bet on, so I’m staying away from that one. (As of this writing, there also were no prop lines available yet for any Lions RBs, possibly for similar reasons.) The Packers’ backfield, however, is more predictable. It’s the Aaron Jones show.

Jones has been seeing a larger share of the Packers’ backfield duties over the last two weeks, out-snapping A.J. Dillon 84-44 and out-touching him 28-14. He is averaging 72 yards per game after his best game of the season last week (143 yards on 7.15 ypc) against the Bills’ 4th-ranked rushing defense. The Lions have allowed at least 64 rushing yards to their opponent’s top running back in seven out of eight games this season. If Jones is going to get the lion’s share (pun intended) of rushes against that defense, I love his chances to exceed 64.5 rushing yards.