Green Bay Packers Vs. Miami Dolphins NFL Player Props & Picks (12/25/22)

Get Green Bay Packers Vs. Miami Dolphins player prop picks & odds for the (12/25/22) matchup.

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Green Bay Packers Vs. Miami Dolphins Player Prop Picks

The first game on Christmas Day is easily the best of the bunch, and I can’t wait to watch Aaron Rodgers and Tua Tagovailoa square off to start our holiday. The Packers are hanging on by a thread in playoff contention with every game being critical from here on out, while the Dolphins are looking to solidify their Wild Card standing.

In this article, I’ll break down the top player prop values in this game. For more coverage on betting angles for this game between the Packers and Dolphins, check out our YouTube channel. You can use the player prop search tool above to compare odds from different sportsbooks for the player props you have selected. Let’s get to work.

Christian Watson Over 51.5 Receiving Yards (-114 FanDuel)

It’s easy to say Romeo Doub’s return was the reason Christian Watson had a relatively down game last week, but that’s not entirely true. Doubs only played on 23 snaps (32%) while Watson played on 62 snaps (87%). That split isn’t likely to change drastically moving forward as Lazard and Watson are solidified as the top two receivers in the offense.

The biggest reason Watson wasn’t as explosive last week was the matchup. The Rams aren’t a great pass defense, but they play among the most zone defense in the NFL. Rodgers said after the game that he felt like the Rams were playing more Cover 2 to contain Watson, and while that might be true, it’s also just how they’ve played defense all year.

The Dolphins are different. They blitz at the seventh-highest rate in the NFL and play a high rate of man coverage behind it. Watson averages 4.29 yards per route run against man coverage this season, the second-best clip in the NFL among receivers with 10+ targets. That makes this a smash spot for the rookie wideout to perform.

Aaron Rodgers Over 247.5 Passing Yards (-114 FanDuel)

It’s been a down year for Aaron Rodgers without Davante Adams by his side, and he’s actually only cleared this number in two of his 13 games this season. Yikes. However, there are plenty of reasons to believe this could be a showcase game for the future Hall of Famer, and his passing yardage prop is very enticing.

The Dolphins have been excellent against the run lately, and they rank seventh in early down rushing EPA allowed since Week 10. That means the Packers won’t be able to solely rely on the ground game this week, and they will likely increase their passing rate from their league average mark.

Injuries to Brandon Jones, Byron Jones, Nik Needham, and Eric Rowe have left the Dolphins’ secondary weakened, and they rank just 26th in pass defense DVOA. Miami has allowed Josh Allen and Justin Herbert to clear 300 passing yards over the last two weeks, and while Rodgers might not hit that number, he should clear 250 yards in this matchup.

Raheem Mostert Over Rushing Yards

My final prop for this game isn’t available on sportsbooks yet as we’re still waiting for injury news on Jeff Wilson, who missed last week’s game with a hip issue. However, if Wilson is out and Raheem Mostert gets the backfield to himself again, he is in a wonderful position to succeed in this game.

Mostert was a focal point of the offense last week as he took 17 carries for a season-high 136 yards, and the more balanced approach for Miami helped their offense produce despite a difficult matchup against the Bills. I wouldn’t expect the Dolphins to change that approach this week.

That’s especially true given the Packers are ranked 8th in DVOA against the pass and 32nd against the run. Green Bay is also ranked 32nd in rushing success rate and 30th in yards per carry allowed. Mostert could have a massive day on the ground in this matchup, so keep an eye out for the injury report.