Green Bay Packers vs Minnesota Vikings NFL Player Props (9/11/22)

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Adam Thielen Anytime Touchdown

Since 2018, Adam Thielen has 40 touchdowns in 54 games – that’s a rate of 0.74 per game. You can currently find Thielen at +185 odds to score a touchdown at DraftKings, and that’s way too high for that hit rate. Those odds would indicate there is just a 35.1% chance of Thielen scoring a touchdown this week.

In his last ten games against the Packers, Thielen has scored seven touchdowns. The Vikings are integrating a new head coach in Kevin O’Connell, but he’s an offensive-minded coach who will recognize Thielen’s prowess in the red zone. The Green Bay defense could quietly be a top-five unit this year, but the Vikings will be much more of a pass-first offense this year.

The sportsbooks project Minnesota for 2.5 touchdowns in this game, and I like these odds for Thielen to have at least one of them. The best odds on Thielen to score 2+ touchdowns are also at DraftKings, where you can get +1300 value. Thielen to score a touchdown is also a great Same Game Parlay piece this week.

Adam Thielen Over 4.5 Receptions

I don’t just like this matchup for Adam Thielen’s ability to produce in the red zone. I believe he could be a focal point of the offense with Justin Jefferson drawing consistent coverage from Jaire Alexander on the boundary. The Packers will utilize Rasul Douglas and Eric Stokes in coverage against Thielen. Both are solid, but not good enough to take him out of the game.

Even in an underwhelming run-first offense with Mike Zimmer last year, Adam Thielen went over 4.5 receptions in eight of his thirteen games. That includes an eight-catch performance against the Packers.

Thielen has also averaged 4.9 career catches per game against the Packers and gone over this mark in five of his last seven games against them. I’ll happily take the plus money on him here.

Aaron Jones Over 4.5 Receptions and 36.5 Receiving Yards

Davante Adams and Marquez Valdes-Scantling left in the offseason, and Allen Lazard, the presumed WR1, isn’t practicing this week. Aaron Rodgers is currently set at over/under 23.5 completions and over/under 267.5 passing yards in this game – who will be on the receiving end of those passes?

My money is on Aaron Jones becoming a focal point of the passing offense this year. In seven games since 2019 without Davante Adams in the lineup, Jones has averaged 5.1 catches and 55.4 receiving yards per game. I would split your bet between the receptions total and the yardage total. I think both hit.

Robert Tonyan to Score a Touchdown

You can get Robert Tonyan’s touchdown prop at +295 on BetMGM, which I see as fantastic value. Tonyan only played in eight games last year, but he scored 11 touchdowns in 2020 – that’s a rate of 0.68 touchdowns per game, which would show significant value on the current odds.

Tonyan will likely be a top red zone target for Aaron Rodgers this season with the aforementioned departures of Davante Adams and MVS, and that will be even more so the case if Allen Lazard doesn’t play this week. Keep an eye on the practice reports as he’s dealing with a knee issue and will likely be a game time decision.