Green Bay Packers vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers NFL Player Props & Picks (9/25/22)

Get NFL player props and picks for the Green Bay Packers vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers matchup on (9/25/22)

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Green Bay Packers vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers Player Prop Picks

When the Packers and Buccaneers face off this week, we aren’t expecting a shootout between Aaron Rodgers and Tom Brady. Both offenses are missing key personnel as they are dealing with significant injuries, and both defenses are excellent. Although that’s the case, there will be value in the player props market. Keep an eye out for our NFL best bets articles and SGP articles for more content on this game. This article will focus on the best player props to target from the Packers vs. Buccaneers game.

Leonard Fournette Over 70.5 Rushing Yards

The Buccaneers’ running back has had an excellent start to his season, and this matchup sets up as being very favorable for him. With Tampa’s lack of established, healthy pass-catching weapons, we expect them to employ a heavy rush rate in this game – they rank seventh at a 49.61% run rate this season. The Packers rank as the second-worst run defense per PFF and rank 25th in rushing EPA allowed. I do expect the Green Bay run defense to improve, especially with the presence of linebacker De’Vondre Campbell, it’s also a product of the style of defense that Green Bay runs. The combination of Fournette’s heavy usage and a plus matchup makes this a clear play.

Tom Brady Under 241.5 Passing Yards

While Green Bay’s rush defense has faltered, their passing defense should be quite good. The Week 1 draw against Justin Jefferson’s Vikings was brutal, but they looked much better in Week 2, and it confirmed what I thought I knew about this defense. Rashan Gary and Preston Smith will provide plenty of pass-rush against an injured Tampa offensive line while the cornerback trio of Jaire Alexander, Rasul Douglas, and Eric Stokes is among the best in the NFL. Tom Brady has just 402 passing yards all season, and this matchup isn’t conducive to him breaking out with all of the team’s missing pass-catchers. I’m surprised this number is set this high, and I’ll be fading Brady for another week.

Robert Tonyan Over 28.5 Receiving Yards

Speaking of those missing pass-catchers, Green Bay is in a similar situation. Sammy Watkins has already been ruled out while Christian Watson and Randall Cobb are listed as questionable. Allen Lazard will be Aaron Rodgers’s #1 target on the outside, but he’ll draw tough coverage against Jamel Dean and Carlton Davis. Robert Tonyan had 36 receiving yards in Week 1, and while he was less involved last week, he’ll be more necessary in this matchup. Tonyan is one of the few pass-catchers in this offense that Rodgers has established chemistry with, and he’ll be an important underneath outlet with the pass-rush that the Buccaneers can supply. I’d be tempted to play his touchdown prop again this week as he’s been close in recent weeks, but this matchup isn’t going to be anything resembling a shootout.