This article provides in-depth betting analysis for game 3 of the Eastern Conference Finals between the Heat and Celtics. Each of the best bets presented below can be wagered together as a same game parlay for tonight’s pivotal matchup.
While many expected a bounce back performance from the Boston Celtics, the Miami Heat continue to show they belong by stealing game two on the road. They have now ramped up the series pressure on the Celtics, forcing them to find answers in a pinch on how to slow down Jimmy Butler and company while on the road.
Heat vs Celtics SGP Best Bets
With the NBA action dwindling to a game a night, let’s dive deep into the matchup and muster up a SGP off of how I think the game script will go. After opening as a massive series underdog, the Heat are now the favorite to advance after stealing games one and two. With home court advantage, it’s now vital the Heat can at least win one more before having to travel back to Boston for a potential game five.
SGP Leg 1: Boston Celtics moneyline
After losing games one and two on their own home court, the Celtics backs are back in desperation mode as they need to figure out a way to slow down the Heat in a hurry. They opened as massive favorites in game one and two, hovering anywhere between -8 and -9.5. They now have crashed back down to -3.5 heading into game three.
With desperation comes a more spirited effort, amplifying the defense pressure that is expected to come with slowing down Jimmy Butler. He has been a man possessed throughout the playoffs, taking the Heat as far as he can with his blend of elite scoring and facilitation.
The Celtics have shown flashes of slowing him down, winning a majority of the eight quarters played so far in this series. The issue is Boston has had a tendency to take their foot off the gas, allowing the Heat to build an insurmountable lead. Look for them to send help defense in the middle, forcing the Heat to kick back out and beat them over the top with a secondary scorer.
SGP Leg 2: Caleb Martin o10.5 Points
Correlating this with the idea of throwing more doubles at Butler, Caleb Martin will be the instant benefactor to more production. He has already taken on a heavier workload by stealing Kyle Lowry’s starting minutes, now potentially getting more looks at the rim by playing as a spot up shooter to Butler’s kickouts.
He already finds himself in good position to clear this, averaging 20 points per game with his starting minutes thus far in this series. If for some reason Boston does not adjust their defense to target Butler, then I still like this position on his minutes alone.
SGP Leg 3: Jayson Tatum o29.5 Points
The last time we saw the Celtics backs against the wall, Jayson Tatum had an offensive explosion in game seven against the 76ers. They now find themselves in a similar position, desperately needing a win to avoid an 0-3 deficit with game four in Miami.
Tatum has had a tendency to disappear at times throughout the playoffs, now needing to take charge in a major way. He has found continued success in this series, scoring 30 or more in both games against the Heat.
Look for Tatum to relentlessly attack the rim, forcing the Heat to collapse into the interior. This clears space at the perimeter, giving the potential for high quality looks for Tatum to exploit as a threat from deep.
SGP Leg 4: Jaylen Brown u2.5 Threes
With Jayson Tatum potentially shouldering more of a load in the scoring department, Jaylen Brown may take a back seat as he has struggled to generate any sort of consistency on offense. He has had a hard time adjusting to the perimeter pressure, going one for seven from deep in game two.
The Celtics may opt into the idea of having him go back to his slashing ways, especially if the defensive pressure is shifted on the opposite side in an effort to negate Tatum. This allows him to attack the middle, settling for a mid-range look or a high-quality layup should Bam not properly shift over.
SGP Betting Card
- Boston Celtics Moneyline
- Caleb Martin o10.5 Points
- Jayson Tatum o29.5 Points
- Jaylen Brown u2.5 Threes
Full SGP Odds: +569 ($10 wins $56.90)