Heat vs Celtics Game 5 SGP Best Bets Today (5/23/25): Celtics Look to Force Game 6 With Big Night From Tatum
This article provides in depth betting analysis for Game 5 of the Eastern Conference Finals between the Miami Heat and the Boston Celtics. Each bet presented below can be parlayed with each other to form a same game parlay (SGP).
Heat vs Celtics SGP Best Bets
Better to arrive late than not arrive at all. With their backs against the wall down 0-3 in their series against Miami, Boston’s offense finally showed up as they thoroughly dominated the Heat defense to a comfortable game four victory. They now get the benefit of returning back home, getting the opportunity to apply more pressure as a comfortable game five favorite.
With the NBA action dwindling to a game a night, let’s dive deep into the matchup and muster up a SGP off of how I think the game script will go. With shot variance finally falling in the Celtics favor, we got a glimpse of why they were once pegged as a championship favorite. The Heat also are dealing with poor injury luck at the worst time possible with Kyle Lowry and Gabe Vincent both tweaking their ankles in game four.
SGP Leg 1: Boston Celtics Moneyline
While I am comfortable with the thought of the Celtics continuing to find success on offense, I want to take the added security of a moneyline piece instead of them to cover -8.5.
Everything that could have gone wrong went wrong for the Celtics in their first three games, being on the wrong side of extreme shot variance. While they could not hit the broad side of a barn, the Heat seemingly hit every back breaking shot for lengthy periods of time.
This was detrimental to the Celtics hopes of winning their series as the Heat run a similar style of scheme, negating the Celtics strengths by converting at a high rate on offense. When the Heat finally went cold, the Celtics could get out in transition and pick apart the reeling Heat defense by filling in the gaps with their perimeter players.
With the Heat’s depth taking a major blow, and tired legs becoming more of a detrimental factor to their shot making as this series goes on, they are in a serious predicament as they try to finish out the series. Boston should have no issue taking care of business on their home court for game five.
SGP Leg 2: Jayson Tatum Double-Double Yes
A staple to our SGP’s so far this series, Jayson Tatum has made it his mission to help out the undersized Celtics by relentlessly attacking the glass. He cleared this with ease yet again in game four, finishing with 34 points and 11 rebounds.
Jayson Tatum in Elimination Games this postseason:
3-0 Record. Clutch. pic.twitter.com/mHMd56FRa1
— NBA World (@NBAW0RLD24) May 24, 2023
Look for Tatum to continue running at a high motor as he attacks the boards in an effort to negate the Heat’s second chance opportunities. This allows him to instantly attack in transition, either taking it coast to coast as an elite finisher at the rim or kicking it out to an open three-point shooter as the defense collapses to the interior.
SGP Leg 3: Jaylen Brown u2.5 Threes
Like Jayson Tatum’s double doubles, the under on Jaylen Brown’s threes have been a staple to my betting card. He gave us a scare by knocking one down early in the first half, yet rest assured he continued to struggle by failing to knock down another in the second half and finished game four by shooting 1-5.
The number of attempts in game four immediately stood out to me, ticking a tad bit down after going 0-7 in game three. A potential coaching adjustment, opting into calling his number in halfcourt isolation sets and allowing Brown to get higher quality looks near the rim. Brown is one of the better slashers in the league, being able to both stop and pop in the middle of a drive against a backpedaling defender or finish at the rim with a high-quality layup.
SGP Leg 4: Kevin Love u4.5 Rebounds
While I normally fade Kevin Love on his Rebounds+Assists prop, his number has ticked down to 5.5 from the usual 6.5. This has turned my sights to single out his rebounds, negating the opportunity of getting burned by assists off the fast break.
With Tatum and Brown looking to attack Love off the perimeter off of pick and roll sets, this draws Love away from the rim and leaves him ineffective in the rebounding department. Jimmy Butler has also been more relentless at crashing the glass, giving lone big man Bam Adebayo much needed help in the interior.
SGP Betting Card
- Boston Celtics Moneyline
- Jayson Tatum Double-Double Yes
- Jaylen Brown u2.5 Threes
- Kevin Love u4.5 Rebounds
Full SGP Odds: +400 ($10 wins $40)