This article provides best bets and analysis for Game 1 of the NBA Finals between the Miami Heat and the Denver Nuggets. Each bet presented can be wagered on individually or parlayed with each other to form a same game parlay (SGP).
Heat vs Nuggets Game 1 SGP Best Bets
After months of grueling series battles, heart breaking upsets, and a number one seed dominating the competition, the NBA Finals have finally arrived. The Jokic led Denver Nuggets take on the feisty eight seed Miami Heat in what will be a thrilling battle between two well coached units. Momentum swings towards the Nuggets favor as they are the heavy favorite on the series moneyline, being favored to finish this out in five games.
With the NBA action dwindling down to a game a night with the start of the NBA Finals, let’s dive deep into the matchup and muster up a SGP of how I think the game script will go. The Nuggets come in game one as the heavy favorite in game one, getting the advantage of being at home and hosting a hobbled Heat squad fresh off a grueling seven game series against the Boston Celtics.
Denver Nuggets Moneyline
Game one’s SGP starts by attacking the Miami defensive scheme, a 2-3 zone defense that is poised to get shredded by the Nuggets hyper-efficient shooting. With Bam Adebayo undersized, the Heat will need to shroud his deficiencies by having help side defenders near him in the interior. This creates gaps in the opposite side, giving Jokic ample assists opportunities as the best passing big man of all time.
When the Heat’s defense breaks down and decides to switch to man, this gives Jokic free reign to attack Bam at will off the dribble. Jokic is an elite finisher as a physical bulldozer near the rim, as well as possessing the ability to pull up for a high-quality shot. This will force the Heat to throw doubles, once again leaving them exposed for a Nugget to exploit.
Simply put, the Nuggets are in a prime position to dominate on offense throughout the course of this series. The Heat have had to rely on hot shooting to skate past Boston and Milwaukee and are now poised to regress back towards the mean as we saw in games five and six against the Celtics.
Factor in the Nuggets ability to limit opposing perimeter production as the second-best unit in Opposing Three Point Completion Percentage per TeamRankings, and they have all the tools to make quick work of Miami in a potential series sweep.
Nikola Jokic o27.5 Points
Should the Nuggets win in dominant fashion, then that most likely means that Jokic took advantage of his matchup. I debated putting in his Points+Rebounds+Assists, but I will just stick with the points as he should have his fair share of high-quality opportunities to clear this.
As previously mentioned, Bam is an undersized center who will struggle to push back on Jokic’s drives to the basket. Jokic has developed into an incredible finisher at the rim, generating a high-quality scoring chance with his soft touch and patience for a second chance opportunity should the ball not bounce his way. Should Miami stick with their zone, Jokic can knock down the mid-range at a high rate as well.
Michael Porter Jr o2.5 Threes
This was a staple in my Nuggets vs Lakers SGP’s and I am going back to the well as Michael Porter Jr should graciously benefit from Miami’s zone defense. Especially when on the opposite side mid defensive transition, being in a good position to catch and shoot off a Jokic cross court pass.
Porter went ice cold in the series against the Suns and found his groove in the Western Conference Finals against the Lakers. I expect he will continue that momentum with his high quality looks throughout this series as well.
Jimmy Butler u1.5 Threes
It’s my favorite fade opportunity as we get the benefit of sportsbooks ticking up his three-point prop from 0.5 to 1.5 after his latest perimeter performance resulted in him shooting 3-7.
Jimmy Butler is a very weak three-point shooter and has a tendency to only take them in desperation moments. With the Nuggets elite perimeter pressure, we will see those opportunities drastically crash down as he is forced into his habit of attacking the middle.
SGP Betting Card
- Denver Nuggets Moneyline
- Nikola Jokic o27.5 Points
- Michael Porter Jr o2.5 Threes
- Jimmy Butler u1.5 Threes
Full SGP Odds: +411 ($10 wins $41.10)