This article provides best bets and analysis for Game 2 of the NBA Finals between the Miami Heat and the Denver Nuggets. Each bet presented can be wagered on individually or parlayed with each other to form a same game parlay (SGP).
Heat vs Nuggets SGP Best Bets
It was a dominant performance by the Denver Nuggets from start to finish as the game seemed to be over by halftime. The Heat made it interesting with an early fourth quarter run, yet Jokic made sure to put the nail in the coffin by waking up in the scoring department. Miami’s shooting cooled off as they regressed back to their regular season metrics while also looking lost in their attempt to slow down the Denver offense.
With the NBA action dwindling down to a game a night with the start of the NBA Finals, let’s dive deep into the matchup and muster up a SGP of how I think the game script will go. The Nuggets offense started out hot from the gate, putting the Heat in an insurmountable deficit. The star-studded duo of Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray could not be contained, and both are poised to repeat the same performance in game two by slashing through Miami’s zone defense.
SGP Leg 1: Denver Nuggets Moneyline
Backed behind a lackluster performance by the Miami Heat, they failed to give me any sort of conviction that they can be competitive in this series. Denver had their number from the jump, being able to both slice through the middle of their zone and abuse the interior when they switched to man.
This all stems from their star duo of Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray with both of them playing a brilliant patient brand of basketball that relies on crisp facilitation. With their playmaking abilities, they can shift the Heat zone to their liking while hitting an open shooter in stride for a high-quality opportunity.
Especially when they run their two-man game at the top of the perimeter, stretching the Heat out of the interior. Their two-man game is difficult to contain with how Miami likes to defend, opting into dropping off of screens. This allows Murray to hit the brakes and skip back to the perimeter, getting an open look from deep from a Jokic kick out.
If Miami decides to hedge the screen on Nikola’s hip, then this allows him to crash down with his defender failing to get in between him and the basket. Simply put, this offense is near impossible to stop throughout the full course of the game while Miami has fallen back down to reality with their shooting regression.
SGP Leg 2: Michael Porter Jr o2.5 Threes
We’re going back to the well with this prop as it was well on its way of cashing in game one before Porter went 0-6 from deep in the second half. It’s not as if they were smothered looks either as Porter Jr is in the perfect spot to exploit the gaps in Miami’s zone defense.
He has carved out a role as one of Denver’s sharpshooters, hovering on the opposite perimeter of Jokic and Murray’s playmaking and putting himself in position to catch and shoot. Look for his shooting to regress back towards the mean as his opportunities continue to rack up as he slips into Miami’s gaps.
NSGP Leg 3: Nikola Jokic o10.5 Assists
If the first three quarters of game one taught me anything, it’s that Miami’s defense is going to relentlessly pressure Jokic into getting the ball out of his hands. That ticked up his potential assists opportunities as he went on his merry way of recording another triple double.
I am expecting more of the same in game two as Miami will look to slow down Denver’s offense with perimeter pressure on Jokic, forcing him into passing over the top of their zone and hitting either an open shooter or slasher through the back side. With Denver being poised to bounce back towards their shooting averages after a poor shooting night, Jokic will once again be in a good position to clear this.
SGP Leg 4: Nikola Jokic u1.5 Threes
After only taking two attempts from beyond the arc in game one, Jokic’s threes have hit my radar as he has made it clear that his mission is to slash through the Heat’s zone defense.
Even when running as the screener at the top when Murray’s number is called, Miami’s tendency to drop in coverage allows them to keep a man in front of Jokic. This gives me comfort in knowing that he will rarely be in position to take a high-quality look from deep.
Game 2 SGP Betting Card
- Denver Nuggets Moneyline
- Michael Porter Jr o2.5 Threes
- Nikola Jokic o10.5 Assists
- Nikola Jokic u1.5 Threes
Full SGP Odds: +403 ($10 wins $40.30)