Here are the Latest Super Bowl Odds: A Market Comparison

Arguably, the biggest game in sports is happening this Sunday in Tampa Bay. Super Bowl LV will feature the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Kansas City Chiefs in a match that will crown this year’s NFL Champion. Outside of the Super Bowl becoming a spectacle where nearly one-third of the country tunes in, it is also becoming the most bet sporting event in the U.S.

This year, the American Gaming Association is estimating sportsbooks across the country will see record numbers. Roughly $4.3 billion is expected to be wagered on Super Bowl LV, with roughly 22.3 million people making wagers on the big game.

This will be a lot of people’s first time betting on a sport, and it is always important to understand early on how odds and betting markets work, especially in the NFL. There is always enjoyment betting the Super Bowl, but it is even more fun when understanding what a number means when oddsmakers post them.

Comparing Betting Markets

When the market closes at 6:30 PM ET Sunday, there is a good chance that this will be the seventh Super Bowl in 10 years with a point spread of three points or less. The 2013, 2016, and 2018 Super Bowl all had the favorites at 4.5-points.

Across the board, the consensus for opening the Super Bowl line was Kansas City -3.5 and a total of 57, which is the highest opening total in Super Bowl history. However, bettors came in early and knocked the Chiefs down to a three-point favorite, and the total was bet down to 56 in most places.

Depending on where you look, you can find the Buccaneers and Chiefs spread at different prices. When looking at the biggest sportsbooks, the cheapest place to bet the Chiefs is either at DraftKings or BetRivers with -113 juice on Kansas City. If you are looking to bet Tampa Bay, the best place to do it will be at FanDuel or William Hill, with even odds at +100.

A majority of the bets and money is coming in on Kansas City to repeat as Super Bowl Champions. 59% of the bets and 64% of the money is on the Chiefs -3. When looking at different sportsbooks, DraftKings has 70% of the bets on Kansas City, but 52% of the money is coming in on Tampa Bay, which was just under $3.5 million as of Thursday.

Elsewhere, PointsBet has reported 77% of the bets and 90% of the money is coming in on the Chiefs. Sharp money is being seen on the Buccaneers at BetMGM. Again, Kansas City is taking a majority of the bets at 60%, while 53% of the money comes in on Tampa Bay, roughly $2.3 million as of Thursday.

There are a few different numbers on the board if you are looking to bet the total. When sportsbooks opened the total at 57, the number was quickly bet down to the key number of 56. From there, sportsbooks adjusted the number properly from either 56.5 or 55.5, depending on where the money was coming from.

A majority of the two weeks saw it at 56, which is where to consensus number currently sits. However, there are a few rouge totals out there off the key number of 56. If you are looking to bet the over, the best place to do it is at FanDuel, which has the total at 55.5 (-115). BetMGM currently is offering 56.5 (-110) and would be the best place to bet the under.

The public likes betting overs, and that is where a majority of the tickets are coming in. 72% of bettors are currently on the over. However, 52% of the money is on the under, meaning the bigger money that is coming believes the game will stay under 56 points.

DraftKings sees a majority of bets (74%) and money (71%) are coming in on the over. PointsBet and BetMGM are also reporting similar numbers. 76% of the bets and the money is also coming in on the over at PointsBet, and BetMGM is reporting 69% of the bets and 67% of the money thinks the game is going over 56 points.

Like many Super Bowls, a majority of bets are coming in on the favorite and the over. Following market movements is ket, but most oddsmakers have their numbers on key numbers like -3 and 56 and have rarely moved off in the last two weeks.

Understanding Key Numbers

Football is the most popular sport to bet on, and it is always important to understand betting on key numbers in the sport. For football, key numbers are football numbers or numbers that are most likely to land on based on how scoring works.

For example, betting key numbers on the spread would be something like 3, 7, 10, 14, etc. As we can see, the consensus on the Super Bowl is the key number of -3. Three is the most important key number in an NFL game as roughly 10% of NFL games end with a team winning by three.

If you like a side in a game, then the goal is to be on the right side of a key number. Last week, oddsmakers posted the Buccaneers at +3.5 and were quickly bet to +3. Bettors who liked Tampa Bay wanted to bet the Buccs early to get on the right side of +3, the key number.

This doesn’t mean Tampa Bay will cover +3 or +3.5 on Sunday. However, if the Chiefs win by three points, then bettors holding a +3.5 will win, while +3 bettors will push.

The same thing can be currently seen with the total. If you like the over, then getting 55.5 at FanDuel is better than betting 56 at another book. Let’s say eight touchdowns are scored on Sunday, and the total finishes right on 56. Bettors who have 55.5 will win while 56 bettors will push.

We can look at a similar situation with 56.5, which is being offered at BetMGM. Based on our last example, if you like the under, bet it at BetMGM with 56.5. If there are 56 points scored, then you win while under 56 bettors push.

On Sunday, everyone betting the spread and total of the Super Bowl will most likely be sweating out their bets because oddsmakers are very good at what they do. Understanding key numbers are important because getting a better number could be the difference between a win and a loss in a close game.