2021 Houston Texans Betting Preview
The Houston Texans may be in the worst spot that any NFL franchise has been in since the league expanded to add the Texans in 2002. Currently, Deshaun Watson, the team’s star QB, has requested a trade and refuses to play for the Texans. On top of this, Watson is facing lawsuits from several women accusing him of sexual assault or sexually inappropriate behavior.
Besides the QB issues, the team itself is the worst roster in the league. The general manager and head of football operations are widely considered some of the worst in professional sports. With Tyrod Taylor likely leading the team out at quarterback, it is hard to envision a world where the Texans are anything but dead last in the league in pretty much every statistical category.
2020 Houston Texans Team Stats
- Points For: 384
- Points Against: 464
- Passing Yards Per Game: 283.6
- Rushing Yards Per Game: 91.6
- Passing Yards Allowed Per Game: 256.5
- Rushing Yards Allowed Per Game: 160.3
Key Offseason Transactions
The Texans lost their greatest player in franchise history with the departure of J.J. Watt. Meanwhile, it is highly likely that Deshaun Watson will never play another down for the team. These were the two most important players on the Texans, and they are now both gone.
The draft did not bring much in for the Texans, as their first pick was not until the third round. The team did secure Davis Mills, a quarterback that I project to be a solid NFL starter once he develops. However, with the current coaching staff and mess of a roster, it will be hard for Mills to get the time and coaching he needs in order to develop.
Free agency brought nothing to write home about. The best signing was Christian Kirksey, but he will not make a big difference in terms of this team’s ability to win football games. The receiving core, defense, and running back room went into the offseason as some of the worst groups in the league. Free agency did nothing to change this.
Key Draft Pick: Davis Mills
Biggest Signing: Christian Kirksey
Key Departure: J.J. Watt
2020 Houston Texans Betting Stats
ATS +/-: -3.5
Total +/-: +2.2
2021 Houston Texans Betting Outlook
The Texans will be one of the hardest teams to bet on during the season. This is because all of the spread lines will end up with them being massive underdogs. No game should be competitive and will simply come down to how many points the other team wants to beat the Texans by. This means that wagering over/unders and spreads becomes a crab shoot that has little to do with the actual matchup.
Moneylines will offer little value as it will be hard to find any remote value in betting against the Texans. If you are betting on the Texans to win a game, you are basically sending a Hail Mary. The only way the Texans win a game is if the other team loses on purpose for draft purposes, or both of the opposing QBs leave the game with injury, forcing the other team to run wild cat for four quarters.
Houston Texans Super Bowl Odds ()
There is no way that the Houston Texans can win the Super Bowl. The team is going to be last in the division and probably end up with the first pick overall in the draft. Betting on the Texans winning is equivalent to buying a lottery ticket. However, I truly believe a lottery ticket probably has a much better-expected value than any wager on the Texans winning the Super Bowl. Stay away from this wager, and do not get brought in by crazy odds. The Texans are not even going to move out of the bottom three teams this year, let alone compete for a Super Bowl.
Pick: NFL Champion – No
Houston Texans Playoff Odds ()
The Houston Texans will not be making the playoffs in the 2021-2022 NFL season. There are a myriad of reasons for this, but number one is simply the fact that the team has the worst roster in the league. The AFC South is not a tough division, but even if the Colts and Titans fell apart, the Jaguars are miles ahead of the Texans in terms of roster talent. In every single positional group, the Jaguars have an edge. When it comes to wild card possibilities, there are none. Any crazy long odds that are offered are simply a trap; the Texans have a better shot at going 0-17 than they have of even competing for a wild card position.
Pick: To Make Playoffs – No
Houston Texans Win Total Odds: Over 4 Games ()
This is quite an easy bet. I believe the line is much too high at four wins for the Texans this season. There is a crazy possibility that they run into two, maybe even three, wins, but there is little chance that the team musters together four wins on the season. This team is far worse than the Jaguars and Jets of last year, two teams that COMBINED for three wins. The Texans are not reaching four wins this year, and this is one of the few values you can get when wagering on the Texans.
Pick: Under 4 Wins
Houston Texans Players Futures Odds
Brandin Cooks To Lead League in Receving Yards ()
There are not many wagers that I like when it comes to players on the Houston Texans. However, one longshot that has the slightest chance of happening is Brandin Cooks racking up the most receiving yards in the league. There are no other good options on this team, even after acquiring Anthony Miller. You couple this with the fact that the Texans should be down big in every game that they play, and you have a recipe for a lot of yards going Cooks’ way.
Now, I would like this wager a lot more if Tyrod Taylor was not the one throwing the ball to Cooks. However, even as that may, +10,000 is just long enough for me to start thinking about this as a value bet.
If forced to choose one player future, I’m going with this one when it comes to the Houston Texans.
The Texans are not good. The team is one of the worst that I have ever seen and probably the worst that I have ever had to cover. It will be very interesting to see if this team can pull together even one win this season. The best bet for the Texans may be on who they will draft at #1 overall next year because I do not see a world where the team is not drafting 1st.
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