Texans Odds to Win Super Bowl 2021
Texans Odds to Win Super Bowl: +4600
Texans Win Total: 7.5
Texans Odds to Win Division: +300
Texans Odds to Win Conference: +2400
Texans Odds Analysis
2019-20 saw the Texans claim their fourth AFC South division title in the last five years. Despite their string of successful seasons, the team has failed to ever advance beyond the Divisional Round of the AFC Playoffs. That trend continued last year with a loss to the eventual Super Bowl Champion Kansas City Chiefs. The loss would be followed by an offseason full of rather questionable moves by the front office.
The widespread perception that the Texans were weakened by the offseason roster turnover is reflected in the Super Bowl LV betting odds, by far the longest of any defending divisional champion in the entire NFL. At +4600, the Texans rank 21st among the odds for all NFL teams when it comes to their odds of hoisting the Lombardi Trophy at FanDuel Sportsbook. Their AFC Championship odds of +2400 are the 10th shortest in the conference. Houston’s season win total of 7.5 projects a sharp decline for what was a 10-win team last year.
AFC South Betting Analysis
The Texans odds to win the AFC South division sit at +300, making them the underdogs of what figures to be a three-team division race. The Indianapolis Colts are the odds-on favorites at +135, followed by the Tennessee Titans at +165. The Jacksonville Jaguars aren’t expected to contend for the division crown this year, and this is reflected in their odds of +2000.
The signing of Philip Rivers has the Colts and their backers fully believing that they are a team ready to contend this season. The Titans also made headlines at the quarterback position, signing Ryan Tannehill to a massive extension. Despite the moves, it is still the Texans who have the best QB in the division in Deshaun Watson. And while he alone can’t win a division title, having a clear advantage at the most important position in football means that the Texans cannot be overlooked.
Houston will face a key stretch of AFC South action in their schedule over the final five weeks, with two games against the Colts and the season finale against the Titans coming in that span. From a 2019-20 win percentage standpoint, the Texans have the toughest strength of schedule in the division, courtesy of their first-place finish. While the season opener at the Kansas City Chiefs will be tough, a home game against the Tom Brady-less New England Patriots doesn’t seem as scary now as it once would have. Houston and the entire AFC South division will also play through both the AFC and NFC North divisions this season.
Texans Offseason and Draft
The Texans decided at the end of January to double up the responsibilities of head coach Bill O’Brien, appointing him to be the team’s general manager as well. His first offseason in his new role left a bit to be desired, with the trade of arguably the teams’ best player looming largest.
While Houston has the edge over their AFC South foes at quarterback, Deshaun Watson will be without the man who has been his top receiver from the day he began his NFL career. The very questionable trade of DeAndre Hopkins to the Arizona Cardinals for running back David Johnson and an extra draft pick left many with their mouths hanging open. When healthy, Johnson has proven to be a talented back with multiple facets to his game. But durability is a big question.
The Texans went on to make a second trade for wide receiver Brandin Cooks. They gave up their second-round pick, but the deal at least helped to lessen the blow of losing Hopkins. Cooks will join Will Fuller, Kenny Stills, and free agent signee Randall Cobb to provide a volume of targets for Watson. Add in Keke Coutee, rookie Isaiah Coulter, and tight ends Jordan Akins and Darren Fells, and Houston has no shortage of weapons. Unfortunately, none are true game changers like Hopkins.
Up front, the Texans have invested heavily in left tackle Laremy Tunsil. The team also resigned guard Zach Fulton. The line wasn’t one of the NFL’s best last season, ranking just 21st in run blocking efficiency and 27th in protection on pass plays according to Football Outsiders. However, they did still manage to block well enough for Carlos Hyde to have a 1000-yard rushing season.
The Texans left a lot to be desired on defense at times last year, but a full season of star defensive end J.J. Watt in 2020 will undoubtedly help the numbers. The linebacking trio of Whitney Mercilus, Benardrick McKinney, and Zach Cunningham is a force to be reckoned with. Houston paid up to sign safety Eric Murray to help anchor a secondary that lost veteran corner Johnathan Joseph and safety Tashaun Gipson. Corner Bradley Roby was successfully resigned.
– Star Quarterback Play
– Deep and Talented Receiver Room
– Blindside Protection
– Imposing Linebacker Unit
– Durability Concerns for Several Offensive Playmakers
– Need to Improve Run Defense
– Suspect Coaching and Management
– Tough Schedule
Despite what must be considered as a losing offseason, the Texans still have a roster full of talent on both offense and defense. Provided that their key contributors stay in good health, Houston has the tools to once again challenge for the AFC South title.
Taking a stab on Houston to win the division at +300 odds is nothing I am opposed to. The Colts and Titans both have shorter odds, and probably deservedly so. But this is not a team you should count out based on questionable offseason moves alone.
When it comes to Super Bowl and AFC Championship odds for the Texans, I’ll pass. While a playoff berth is realistic, I don’t see how this Texans team as being built for an extended postseason run. Look to bet yes on Houston making the playoffs at +144 instead. Given the circumstances and potential unknowns with this team, this is my favorite Texans futures play on the board.
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