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Houston Texans vs. Denver Broncos Player Prop Picks
Week 2’s matchup between the Broncos and the Texans features one team who was stunned to lose their opener, and one who was perhaps equally stunned not to do so. Russell Wilson and the Broncos went on the road to Russ’s longtime home in Seattle where they were denied victory due in part to a bizarre field goal decision by brand-new coach Nathaniel Hackett, while the Texans fought to a tie with the worst week 1 team ever, the Indianapolis Colts. Let’s take a look at some bets for individual players who could either shine or disappoint on Sunday.
Davis Mills o226.5 Passing Yards
Last week, against a solid Colts defense, Mills threw for 240 yards, just 26 of which were in OT and somehow none of which were in the fourth quarter. No, I wouldn’t expect him to have an extra period to tack on yardage this time out, but it’s also not so likely that he puts up a total goose egg in an entire quarter of play, especially if Houston is playing more from behind than last time.
In his starts last season, Mills averaged 228 yards, and of course that came in a season where he was adjusting to the NFL. Now he’s settled in, as he will enjoy the benefit a full offseason as the presumptive starter, as well as of course the 11 starts under his belt from a season ago. In a week where the game script is likely to involve a lot of passing scenarios, I like Mills to get the over for this relatively modest total.
Javonte Williams o82.5 rushing+receiving yards
A season ago, Williams averaged a total of 71 in this category as he put together a rather nice rookie season while establishing himself in a fairly even backfield rotation with veteran Melvin Gordon. That workload increased towards the end of the season, by which point totals more similar to this week’s number of 82.5 became much more commonplace.
On opening week this year, he picked up where he left off by picking up 107 scrimmage yards while being very involved in the passing game. It’s also worth noting that the Broncos rushing offense, which only picked up 103 yards as a whole, should be more productive this week in their home environment against another subpar opponent.
The Texans defense from a year ago was the second-worst in the overall yardage and rushing yardage categories, and sixth-worst scoring defense. There’s not a lot of belief that they’ll be much better this year, and Williams should be able to take full advantage.
Russell Wilson o1.5 passing touchdowns
Simply put, Russell Wilson is just not about to throw only one touchdown a second week in a row, at home, against another extremely mediocre (at best) defense. He’s going to be hungry to light up the scoreboard, and establish himself and the Broncos as a force to be reckoned with in this year’s NFL. Notably, the Broncos offense had the 4th-best EPA/play of any team in week 1.
There needs to be some improvement in terms of end product, as the 16 points against a fairly dreadful Seahawks team is not an acceptable outcome. But the peripheral stats, including Wilson’s own 340 passing yards, suggest positive regression for the Broncos.
I’m riding with Russ for his first game in Broncos Country, and I expect him to throw for at least a pair of touchdowns. He’s already flashed the big play ability that can strike at any moment with his long strike to Jerry Jeudy in week 1, and there should be more than a flash in week 2