Houston Texans vs. Las Vegas Raiders NFL Player Props & Picks (10/23/22)

Get Houston Texans vs. Las Vegas Raiders player prop picks & odds for the (10/23/22) matchup

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Houston Texans vs. Las Vegas Raiders Player Prop Picks

Fresh off a bye week after their first win of the season in week 5 at Jacksonville, the Houston Texans (1-3-1) visit the Las Vegas Raiders (1-4) on Sunday, October 23 at Allegiant Stadium. The Raiders, who are also coming off a bye week, are 7-point favorites despite surprisingly having a worse record than the Texans at this point this season. The over/under is set at 45.5 for this matchup. Josh Jacobs has been red-hot for the Raiders with 368 total yards and three touchdowns over the last two games. Can he keep it up against the Texans’ 28th-ranked rushing defense?

Let’s take a look at some player prop picks I like in this Texans vs. Raiders matchup.

Dameon Pierce over 64.5 rushing yards

Dameon Pierce has officially taken over the backfield in Houston. After only seeing 29% of the snaps in his first career game, Pierce has played at least 59% of the snaps in every game since week 1, including a season-high 79% in week 5. He has out-touched number two running back Rex Burkhead by at least 14 touches every week since week 2 including by 24 in week 5, and he is averaging nearly 20 touches per game despite posting just 12 in week 1.

Pierce has rushed for at least 69 yards in four out of five games and is averaging 115 yards per game over the last two weeks. Las Vegas does have a tough run defense, allowing just over 103 yards per game (5th in the league) despite facing a few of the top runners in the league already like Austin Ekeler and Derrick Henry. They are also likely to load up against the run and make Texans QB Davis Mills beat them through the air, but Mills should be able to do that well enough against the Raiders’ 24th ranked pass defense to keep them honest.

Bet on Pierce continuing his strong rookie season and topping 64.5 rushing yards for the fifth week in a row.
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Brandin Cooks under 61.5 receiving yards

This feels like a pretty high line for Brandin Cooks, who is averaging just 47 receiving yards per game and just under 66 yards per game for his career. Cooks is playing a slightly different role this year than he has in the past, running more short and intermediate routes and not getting as many targets downfield. He is averaging a career-low 9.8 yards per catch and registering a career-low 8.4-yard average depth of target (aDOT).

Davis Mills seems to prefer looking at Cooks’ counterpart Nico Collins on downfield throws. Collins is averaging 18.1 yards per catch on an aDOT of 15.1, and is currently averaging more yards per game than Cooks at 54.4. Cooks still leads the team in targets, but has seen those targets be flat or declining each of the last four weeks while Collins has gotten more involved, and Collins has been more productive with his targets.

Take the under on Cooks’ receiving yards this week. And speaking of Collins…

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Nico Collins over 41.5 receiving yards

Collins is emerging as the Texans’ most productive wide receiver and may surpass Cooks as the most-targeted receiver before the end of the season. His season average of 54.4 receiving yards per game is well above this week’s prop line of 41.5. The big-bodied second-year receiver is leading the Texans in nearly every efficiency metric and his snap and target shares have been steadily increasing throughout the season. As he sees more volume, his efficiency may not keep up, but his overall numbers will continue to increase. That continues this week as he tops 41.5 receiving yards for the fourth time in six games this season.

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Noah hails from Philadelphia and is a diehard Philly sports fan. He graduated from Penn where he was a sports writer and editor for the student newspaper and also spent a summer covering the Baltimore Orioles for MLB.com. He has been playing fantasy sports since before live stats were a thing, and he has enjoyed learning the nuances of DFS in recent years. As a current resident of Florida, he is hoping the wave of sports betting legalization will eventually reach his home state.

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