How Early Season NFL Injuries Will Impact Betting Odds

Week 2 in the NFL was a blood bath with injuries. Many star players went down last week, including multiple season-ending injuries.

Yikes.

Injuries are apart of the NFL. Every team has them and needs to play the ‘ol “next man up card” to win games. This year we will see many more role players taking on major roles, whether they are ready or not.

Seeing injuries suck, and after having a week of injuries as we saw on Sunday makes it even more depressing. Hopefully, Week 2 was an outlier for injuries, and we do not see the number of guys going down the rest of the season.

Now that the NFL is two weeks into the season, maybe guys feel like they are in better game shape compared to limited preseason and the early-season NFL games.

Why so Many Injuries?

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The most likely reason for the numerous injuries this season is because of a limited offseason. With the coronavirus outbreak, NFL teams and coaches were not able to get players on their normal offseason schedules in the spring and summer.

Players possibly were not as prepared as they usually are for a full 16 game schedule. With no preseason games and limited practices, players needed the first few weeks to get back in shape.

This has cost some guys their 2020 season now as multiple names are now out for the year. Even players that will only miss a few weeks will have a big impact on Sunday. Quarterbacks Jimmy Garoppolo of the 49ers and Drew Lock of the Broncos are expected to miss about a month of football due to injuries.

The list continues, and it is a lot longer than normal after two weeks of NFL football.

How to Handicap Injuries?

Injuries are a big part of NFL handicapping every week. The NFL talent is so good that one or two key injuries could completely impact a game and be the decisive factor between covering and not covering a spread.

For example, the 49ers are 4.5-point favorites at the Giants this week. The 49ers will be without Garoppolo, Raheem Mostert, Nick Bosa, and Solomon Thomas. On top of that, George Kittle, Dee Ford, Richard Sherman, and others are also dealing with injuries, limiting them in Week 3.

The Giants lost Saquon Barkley for the year, who is arguably their best offensive weapon despite the lack of production in the first two weeks. NFL bettors now have to decide how much the injuries are worth to the spread. How much are Garoppolo, Mostert, Bosa, and Thomas worth to the spread along with Barkley on the Giants.

Sure, the 49ers are arguably the better team even without their injuries, but injuries have such a big impact that the game could a lot tighter even though the Niners are viewed as one of the better teams in the NFC.

You can go across the NFL this week and see the impact. Christian McCaffery will be sidelined a few weeks for the Panthers. Malik Hooker is done for the year. The Broncos signed Blake Bortles after Lock went down. Aaron Rodgers’ number one target Davante Adams will miss time with a hamstring injury.

The list goes on and now handicapping NFL games will be much more challenging moving forward. This week, pay attention to the injury report. Betting on the NFL is already tough, and the number of injuries the past few weeks is not helpful.

  
I fell in love with handicapping right away. Sports betting is a lot more enjoyable when going through advanced data to find an edge on a Vegas line. Situational plays is a focus of mine and study stats and data analytics to go along with certain situations to make myself a more well rounded capper. College football and college basketball are my favorite to bet.

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