How the 49ers, Dolphins, and Eagles Trades Shifted Future Odds
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Breaking news has happened this morning as there as been multiple massive NFL Draft trades. The Dolphins traded the 3rd pick in the 2021 draft for pick 12, 2022 first and third-round picks, and a 2023 first-round pick. Obviously, this massive move is being made with the 49ers eying a quarterback at three. With the unknown of who will go number 2 to the Jets, it seems like the 49ers must feel okay with some combination of Lance, Fields, and Wilson and are not eyeing just one player.
Following this, the Dolphins traded back up to 6th overall in the draft. The Dolphins received pick 6 and 156 in the 2021 draft in exchange for 12th overall and 123rd overall in the 2021 draft, alongside a 2022 first-round pick.
Essentially This is the result:
49ers:
Received: 3rd Overall in 2021 Draft
Gave up: 12th Overall in 2021 Draft, a 1st-round and a 3rd-round pick in 2022 Draft, a 1st-round pick in 2023 Draft
Dolphins:
Received: 6th and 156th picks in 2021 Draft, a 3rd-round pick in 2022 Draft, a 1st-round pick in 2023 Draft
Gave up: 3rd and 123rd picks in 2021 Draft
Eagles:
Received: 12th and 123rd picks in 2021 Draft, a 1st-round pick in 2022 Draft
Gave up: 6th and 156th picks in 2021 Draft
The NFL Odds Fallout
There has not been a massive shift in the odds thus far. The largest movers are the 49ers, who will be upgrading their QB positions from Jimmy Garoppolo to one of Fields, Wilson, or Lance. DraftKings has shifted their NFC West Championship odds from +200 to +180 and the 49ers are now tied with the Rams for most likely to win that division. Then, their Super Bowl Championship odds shifted from +1,500 to +1,400.
This does not seem like a big move, but it is very likely that post-draft, the 49ers may see an even larger shift once that QB is drafted and secured. For now, the Super Bowl odds shift equates to an implied probability move from 6.3% to 6.7% chance at winning the Super Bow.
The Eagles did not move from their horrid position as they still are clear underdogs in the NFC East, sitting at +500 to win the division behind the Cowboys, Washington Football Team, and Giants, who sit at +105, +275, and +450, respectively.
The Dolphins also did not have a real shift in odds, and this play is more of a future value trade for them. It was always likely that they were going to go wide receiver or offensive line at 3, and this does not really change with the trade to number 6. This means that the value of the team this year has not really moved in Vegas’ eyes.
The Winners
I do not love the value the Dolphins got for moving down from three. I believe that the #3 pick in this draft was worth gold, and many teams would have given up more than the 49ers did. The winner for me in this trade is the 49ers. Any one of Fields, Lance, or Wilson is an upgrade over Jimmy Garoppolo, and with the insanely talented defense that the 49ers possess, they are now poised for another Super Bowl run. If the 49ers do win or get near a Super Bowl, it makes that 2022 1st rounder not even that valuable, and there is no price tag that you can put on a star QB on a rookie deal, in my opinion.
