The Indianapolis Colts travel to Buffalo in week 11 to play an old division foe, the Buffalo Bills. Indianapolis and Buffalo played in the old AFC East through the 2001 season. Indianapolis has won five of their last seven games after starting the season 0-3. Buffalo has six victories by more than 25 points since 2020: most in the NFL during that time. The Colts have not beaten a team with .500 or better record in 2021. Buffalo has scored 30 or more points in six games this season. The Bills enter the game a 7.5-point home favorite. The Colts are 6-4 against the spread this season; 2-2 on the road.
Indianapolis Colts Vs. Buffalo Bills Player Prop Search Tool
Carson Wentz U/1.5 Touchdown Passes
Indianapolis is scoring 26.8 points per game in 2021; eighth in the NFL. Buffalo is allowing 15 points per game this season, ranking them first in the NFL.
Carson Wentz in his first season with Indianapolis, has thrown for 2,378 yards, 17 touchdowns, three interceptions with a 63.5 completion percentage. In the Colts victory over the Jaguars in week 10, he threw for 180 yards. In the victory, he did not throw a touchdown pass for the first time in seven games. Over those seven games, Wentz threw 14 touchdown passes.
In his six-year career, Wentz has thrown 130 touchdown passes in 78 games; averaging 1.7 touchdown passes per game. The 2021 season sees Wentz averaging 1.7 touchdown passes per contest.
Based on the superb play of teammate running back Jonathan Taylor and the Bills number one rated defense allowing a little more than two touchdowns a game, I feel Wentz will be under 1.5 touchdown passes for the game this week.
Jonathan Taylor O/ 73.5 Rushing Yards
The Colts ground attack is averaging 136.3 yards per game; sixth best in the NFL. The Bills defense is allowing 83.9 rushing yards per game which is third in the league.
Jonathan Taylor is tied with the injured Derrick Henry for the league lead in rushing with 937 yards, while scoring 10 total touchdowns this season (nine rushing and one receiving). He’s averaging 93.7 rushing yards per game in 2021. On the road, Taylor is averaging 81.75 yards rushing per game this season.
At home in week 10 against the Jaguars he ran for 116 yards on 21 carries with a touchdown. A second-round pick in the 2020 draft, he has eight 100-yard games in his career: five this season.
Per PFF, Taylor has forced 37 missed tackles on runs this season. He also leads the NFL this season with 24 runs of at least 10 yards.
Currently a +2000 to win Offensive Player of the Year, the former Wisconsin Badger is the fourth player in Colts history with at least 2,000 yards rushing in their first two seasons.
Taylor who has rushed for over 100 yards in four of his last five games will once again approach the century mark this weekend as he charges to the rushing title, putting him over 73.5 rushing yards for the game.
Josh Allen U/ 289.5 Passing Yards
Buffalo’s passing game is averaging 279.2 yards per game, sixth in the NFL. The Colts are allowing 249.9 yards in the air to their opponents, ranking them 20th in the league.
Josh Allen threw for 366 yards, two touchdowns and had a 125.6 quarterback rating in the win over the New York Jets in week 10. He has 12 300-yard passing games in his career; no other Buffalo quarterback had more than nine games in their first four seasons.
On the season, he has thrown for 2,602 yards; averaging 289.1 passing yards per game. In home games he’s averaging 281.25 passing yards per game.
Josh Allen leads the NFL in completions over 10 yards with 73 per PFF, which has helped his passing totals throughout the season.
Due to the Bills improved running game, I’ll predict that Allen will stay close to his average in passing yards per game and be under 289.5 passing yards against the Colts.