Last Week: 9-3-1
All-Time Results: 50-43-1, +9.64 Units
Indianapolis Colts -4.5 vs. Denver Broncos -.25 Units
Must be Halloween season. Very, very spooky lines here, beckoning. Big money Friday – when the sportsbooks often raise their limits – is in full effect and someone out there is placing large wagers on the Broncos to cover the spread. The line opened near 6.5 and has dropped all the way to 4.5 points at 10:00 AM PT on Friday.
Who in the world believes the Denver Broncos are this close the Indianapolis Colts? Backing out Home Field Advantage this spread suggests the 2-5 Broncos are within 2 points of the division-leading, 4-2 Colts.
I don’t buy it. Even if the talent gap represented by this spread is accurate – take a look at the trajectories of these squads.
The Broncos are waiving the white flag – trading away their best WR Emmanuel Sanders midseason. Even if their next-in-line receiver is just as good – hard to believe the team doesn’t understand the message that a playoff run is not in the minds of the organization. It’s another down year in Denver – everyone expects a lot more turnover.
The Colts, on the other hand, are the 1999 Tennessee Volunteers, pushing the limits of Ewing Theory to herculean prosperity. There is excitement in the building over what they can accomplish without their former talisman, Andrew Luck. Tossed aside by the betting markets when Luck retired in August, the Colts are currently the favorites to win their first division championship since 2014.
Indianapolis Colts -6.5 vs. Denver Broncos (+123) -.1 Units
Indianapolis boasts one of the best offensive lines in football, with 2nd year LT Quentin Nelson making the case weekly that he is the best in the business. As great as Von Miller is, he easily could have another empty day in the box score department.
Someone out there strongly disagrees with me and that’s okay. I’m not overthinking this one. My ratings have this spread just north of the key number 7. Colts continue to get it done against a Broncos team close to punting on the 2019 season. Lay the points.
4-Team 8-Point Teaser (+168): Colts +3.5 vs. Broncos (from -4.5), Jets +14.5 @ Jaguars (from +6.5); Eagles +10.5 @ Bills (from +2.5); Buccaneers +10.5 @ Titans (from +2.5) – .25 Units
Find my handicap for the Eagles here (best bet of the week) & the Buccaneers here. Don’t mind putting road teams on teasers anymore. Road teams have been surprising the better markets in all sports for years. Traveling is getting easier. To me, HFA advantage is steadily dropping and most road teams will have an inherent half-point of value in most instances.
Even after the spooky debacle at home in the Meadowlands against the Patriots, I still think the Jets’ improvement going from Luke Faulk to Sam Darnold is undervalued by the betting market. On the other hand, Jaguars QB, Gardner Minshew has had a sharply downward trend line since his surprisingly good debut in the league. I think he is overvalued by the market place. All in all, I think we have a slightly better quarterback and a comparable defense with the Jags. I would be very much surprised if either team sustained a big lead in this game.
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