Indianapolis Colts vs. Denver Broncos NFL Player Props & Picks (10/6/22)

Get NFL player prop picks & odds for the Indianapolis Colts Vs. Denver Broncos matchup on Thursday Night Football (10/6/22).

Indianapolis Colts vs. Denver Broncos Player Prop Search Tool

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Indianapolis Colts vs. Denver Broncos Player Prop Picks

On Thursday Night Football this week, we watch two teams who had high hopes entering the season and haven’t quite lived up to expectations. Still, it should be a fascinating game between playoff hopefuls in the AFC. This article will focus on the player prop values in this game. You can use the player prop search tool above to find the best odds for various markets in the Colts vs. Broncos game.

Alec Pierce Over 33.5 Receiving Yards (-101 Caesars)

For the second straight week, Alec Pierce saw significant involvement in the Colts’ offense, and it hasn’t taken long for the rookie to hold an integral for his team. Over the last two weeks, Pierce has 11 total targets, the second-most behind Michael Pittman Jr., despite playing on less than 50% of snaps in both games.

This week, the Colts face an excellent Denver defense that ranks sixth in the NFL against the pass by DVOA. Patrick Surtain II has quickly become one of the premier shadow cornerbacks in the NFL in his second season, and he’s expected to follow Pittman Jr. in this game. That means Pierce will be facing Ronald Darby or fellow rookie Damarri Mathis on the perimeter, both of whom have been much more generous to opposing wideouts.

Jonathan Taylor suffered a toe injury, and while his status for this game is unclear, it was obvious that the injury sapped his efficiency last week. The Colts will have to throw the ball this week, whether they’re effective or not at it, and Pierce can hit this prop on one play with how he’s being used on a ton of downfield routes.

Russell Wilson Under 14.5 Rushing Yards (-115 BetMGM)

In each of the last two weeks, Russell Wilson has shown more of a willingness to use his legs with the game on the line to help beat ferocious pass-rushers. He has 46 total rushing yards over his last two games as he has looked more like the old Russell Wilson from his days in Seattle, but that’s come as his team has faced elite edge defenders Nick Bosa and Maxx Crosby.

However, Wilson picked up a minor shoulder injury, and while I expect him to play through it, he will likely be more guarded. Wilson is acutely aware of the wear and tear he puts his body through when he runs more, and he has repeatedly said that he wants to play into his 40s. A natural response for him would be to not run the ball this week.

Luckily for him, he should have plenty of time in the pocket to diagnose the defense. Indianapolis has struggled to get consistent pressures on opposing quarterbacks, and they rank just 29th in PFF’s team pass rush grades. With the combination of the injury and a matchup that won’t force him to overextend himself, look for a more conservative approach from Wilson.

Jerry Jeudy Over 49.5 Receiving Yards (-114 FanDuel)

Courtland Sutton has clearly emerged as the WR1 for the Broncos, but Jerry Jeudy still earned a 20% target share last week. On those targets, he came through with four catches for 53 yards. Jeudy plays primarily out of the slot, where he draws a phenomenal matchup this week against Kenny Moore. Russell Wilson is attempting to pass over the middle of the field more this year, and his efficiency should continue to improve.

Russell Wilson is throwing over the middle a lot more this year. He is currently 16th in attempts at or inside the numbers (70).

The problem is that his completion percentage (67%) on those throws ranks 34th in the league. Jalen Hurts has similar attempts (67), but is at 82%(!)

— Brett Kollmann (@BrettKollmann) October 4, 2022

Only two corners have allowed a higher passer rating out of the slot this season than Kenny Moore, and they are both rookies. Jeudy already has catches of 67 and 32 yards this year, so he might not need more than a couple of catches to get the job done. With his elite route-running and separation ability, this profiles as a matchup where Jeudy can shine.

This prop is boosted by the fact that the Broncos will likely find it difficult to run the ball in this game. While Derrick Henry found success against the Colts’ run defense last week, Indianapolis entered that game allowing the lowest yards per carry in the league to opposing running backs. Now that Javonte Williams is out for the season, we might see the Broncos opt for more of a pass-heavy attack.