Indianapolis Colts vs. Miami Dolphins (11/10/19): NFL Betting Picks, Lines

Last Week: 10-3
All-Time Results: 64-55-1, +10.31 Units

Miami Dolphins +10.5 @ Indianapolis Colts – .125 Units

Simple freeroll here.  If Colts QB, Jacoby Brissett miraculously returns 100% from his sprained MCL this Sunday – I still think we have a decent play getting doubles here with the Dolphins.  The same goes for WR, T.Y. Hilton, who has not practiced over the past two weeks with a calf injury.  If both miss the game, however, – I think we have a slam dunk play here on the dog.  Without them, the line should be 7.5 or maybe even lower.   I love the Dolphins to remain competitive against a Colts team that hasn’t beaten a team by more than touchdown all season.

The Colts 4-1 record in games decided by a field goal or less belies their true performance level.  Statistically, they’re not an elite team in any area.

Offensively: They are a decent 12th in the league by Football Outsiders DVOA metric.  Numbers that would obviously be considerably worse without either Brisset or Hilton.

Defensively: They’re just 18th.  Their star middle linebacker, 2018 ROY, Darius Leonard seems to be regressing, missing assignments regularly and committing two brutal penalties last week against the Steelers.

The Dolphins are obviously much worse in both offense and defense according to DVOA, but they have been considerably better as of late.

Miami Dolphins +7.5 (+115) @ Indianapolis Colts – .125 Units

miami dolphinsSince Ryan Fitzpatrick took his job back from Josh Rosen in the 3rd quarter of their game against Washington, Miami has actually OUTSCORED their opponents.  Okay – only they’ve only done so by 1 point over the 3 and a half games, but that still pretty good for a team that until recently many considered to be one of the worst of all time.

Believe it or not, Fitzpatrick has played like a top 10 quarterback over the past month.  Fitz-Magic has averaged a 63 QBR over his last 4 games, which would be good for 9th in the league if he maintained this level all season – ahead of Tom Brady & Aaron Rodgers.

While Fitzpatrick may not maintain this hot streak, the team has rallied around him and each other.  Moreover, with a win already on their record, the franchise need not be concerned about protecting their chances at the #1 pick.  The difference between getting the 2nd pick instead of the 5th pick I think is much less coveted than the possibility of drafting 1st overall.  I expect them to try to win games going forward, as they have done over the past couple of weeks.

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Colts To Make the Playoffs (-150) – .45 Units

indianpolis coltsContinuing my thought process from my column yesterday – I don’t think the Buffalo Bills are very good.  Moreover, I think they will be exposed as their schedule gets tougher and ultimately miss the playoffs.  If Buffalo drops out – the Colts have a 1 game lead or better over everybody else in their conference.  While either the Steelers or Raiders could go on a run, I would be surprised if one or both of them didn’t struggle in the second half.

Especially if the Colts are patient with Brissett and allow him to come back 100%, I think Colts should be heavy favorites to win at least 4 more games.  9 wins should definitely be good enough to get into the tournament in a pretty bad 2019 AFC.

Even though I expect Miami to remain competitive in this game, it would be a shocker if they actually won it.   After that, I like Franch Reich & company to again get the better of Doug Marron and Jacksonville twice & maybe even beat Bill O’Brien & the Texans again, this time in Houston.

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Born in Chicago, born for Las Vegas, Mackenzie is a graduate of Yale University with a BA in English & Creative Writting. Mackenzie runs AlternativeStats.blog, which seeks to by-pass the minutiae of commonly cited sports statistics and expose the heart of what drives athletic success. After several successful years investing in Las Vegas real estate, Mackenzie is excited to transition in 2019 into betting on sports full time, as well as documenting his thought process as he further learns the craft.

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