Indianapolis Colts Vs. New England Patriots NFL Player Props & Picks (11/6/22)

Get Indianapolis Colts Vs. New England Patriots player prop picks & odds for the (11/6/22) matchup

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Indianapolis Colts Vs. New England Patriots Player Prop Picks

We’re heading out to New England for this article, and we’re looking for player prop value in the game between the Colts and Patriots. These two teams are jockeying for positioning in the AFC with hopes of still finding a way into the postseason. The Patriots are 5.5-point home favorites here. You can use the Colts vs. Patriots player prop search tool above to compare odds from various sportsbooks for this game. Let’s get to work.

Alec Pierce Over 28.5 Receiving Yards (-115 DraftKings)

I was skeptical of what the introduction of Sam Ehlinger to the starting lineup would mean for the Colts’ wide receivers, but he was very solid last week as he completed 73.9% of his passes and averaged 8.7 yards per attempt. Eight of his 23 passing attempts were 10+ yards downfield, which is a great indication that Frank Reich at least trusts him to throw downfield.

The Patriots use two-high formations at just a 21% rate outside the red zone, which is the lowest in the NFL per TruMedia. Pierce sees a 17.4% target rate against single-high coverage compared to 7.6% against two-high coverage per Sharp Football, and Ehlinger targeted Pierce four times against single-high coverage last week.

Pierce has cleared 28.5 receiving yards in each of his last six games, and he’s averaging 62.1 yards over that span. The number here is deflated due to a perceived difficult matchup, but Sharp Football’s analysis shows us that it can actually be beneficial for Pierce due to the type of coverage the Patriots play.

Sam Ehlinger Over 29.5 Rushing Yards (-106 FanDuel)

The Patriots have struggled against mobile quarterbacks this season. Lamar Jackson and Justin Fields averaged 94.5 rushing yards against them, and while Sam Ehlinger obviously doesn’t possess their speed or athleticism, but he’s shown throughout his collegiate and NFL preseason action that he’s very willing to take off and run.

New England’s defense has been weak against the run all year as they rank 27th in rushing DVOA and 31st in rushing success rate allowed. The Colts will likely mix in some designed quarterback runs and bootleg scramble plays to take advantage of that weakness and make life easier for Ehlinger in what is a daunting start in Foxborough.

Mac Jones Under 212.5 Passing Yards (-114 FanDuel)

I’m fading Mac Jones right now as he simply isn’t playing confident football. Jones is ranked 38th out of 39 qualified quarterbacks in PFF’s grading system and he’s ranked 25th in adjusted EPA per play. He also specifically struggles against zone coverage, which the Colts predominantly play.

Last year, when Jones faced the Colts, he completed just 57.8% of his passes and finished with a mediocre passer rating of 74.2. He did clear this listed passing yardage number, but the Patriots were playing from behind, and he needed a whopping 45 passing attempts to get it done. He averaged just 6.6 yards per attempt.

The other piece of the handicap here is that we could see some Bailey Zappe this week. If Mac Jones makes a mistake or starts the game slow, it wouldn’t be shocking to see Zappe enter the game. Jones averaged just 5.5 yards per attempt last week, and while the Colts’ defense isn’t the same caliber as the Jets’, this is a tough spot for him.