Indianapolis Colts vs. San Francisco 49ers Player Props (10/24/21)
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This week on Sunday Night Football, we will be treated to a game between two quality teams who will likely both be desperate to get back in the win column. The 49ers are coming off their bye week and will be well-rested while the Colts come in with momentum after a 31-3 thrashing of the Texans. There are always excellent opportunities for prop bets in this game, with great value on player props in the matchup. Let’s take a look.
Indianapolis Colts Vs. San Francisco 49ers Player Prop Search Tool
Carson Wentz Over 204.5 Passing Yards
The Colts’ new quarterback has quietly been playing excellent football lately as he gets further removed from his ankle injuries and more comfortable in his new home. Wentz has thrown for 257.5 yards per game this year and has averaged 11+ yards per attempt in each of his past two games. The 49ers have a solid pass defense, but it’s not what it has been in recent years particularly without Jason Verrett who is out for the remainder of the season. San Francisco has allowed 216.6 passing yards per game, the eighth-fewest in the NFL, but they rank just 14th in pass defense DVOA, suggesting that stat is misleading based on the opponents they have faced. Watch out to see which Colts’ offensive linemen are available – that’s important against Nick Bosa and company – but Wentz should do enough to hit the over here.
Sunday Night Football Player Props Video
Michael Pittman Jr. Over 3.5 Receptions and Over 45.5 Receiving Yards
If you’re looking for a player to parlay with Wentz in your prop bets, look no further than second-year breakout wide receiver Michael Pittman Jr. While he only had two catches for 35 yards last week, Pittman was on the field for 96% of the team’s snaps. San Francisco has been vulnerable to opposing wide receivers without Jason Verrett on the field, and with T.Y. Hilton and Parris Campbell both injured, Pittman should get back to the 20+% target share he had seen in every game from Week 2 to 5.
Deebo Samuel Over 59.5 Receiving Yards
To call Deebo Samuel a target hog this season would be an understatement as he has 31.3% of his team’s targets this year. He’s parlayed that target share into 109.6 receiving yards per game, and there’s no reason to think that usage goes away anytime soon, particularly with George Kittle still on Injured Reserve. The re-introduction of Jimmy Garoppolo as the starting quarterback is good for Samuel, as well, as he’s the better, more consistent passer with Trey Lance still extremely raw. The Colts are the fourth-worst pass defense in the NFL in terms of DVOA, and Samuel should have another monstrous game on Sunday Night Football – this line is far too low for what we know he’s capable of.
Elijah Mitchell Under 63.5 Rushing Yards
There’s a lot of hype surrounding rookie running back Elijah Mitchell, but we’ve only seen him run for 45+ yards once this season. The Colts rank as the best run defense in the NFL in DVOA and have allowed just 4.1 yards per carry, the 10th-fewest in the NFL. Whenever you think you have the 49ers’ backfield figured out, Kyle Shanahan throws you another curveball, and I can’t place my faith in Mitchell just yet with Trey Sermon, Trenton Cannon, and even Kyle Jusczyk all threats to steal touches. This isn’t a slam dunk matchup for Mitchell and I’d hold off on betting on his player props until we see him produce at a high level again.
