Get Isiah Pacheco player prop picks & odds for the (2/12/23) matchup
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Isiah Pacheco Player Prop Picks
One of the biggest stories of the season for the Chiefs has been the emergence of seventh-round rookie running back Isiah Pacheco. The Rutgers product finished the regular season with 960 yards from scrimmage and five touchdowns, and he has 186 yards from scrimmage in the team’s two playoff games so far.
In this article, I’ll break down some of the top player props available in Super Bowl LVII for Isiah Pacheco. Be sure to use the player prop search tool above to compare odds from different sportsbooks and make sure you’re getting the best available number. Also, check out our YouTube channel for more content. Let’s get to work.
Isiah Pacheco Over/Under 48.5 Rushing Yards
The Rutgers running back has been a monster down the stretch of the season with 50+ rushing yards in nine of his 11 games to finish the year. He was held to 26 rushing yards against the Bengals last week, but they have had an elite run defense when their nose tackle D.J. Reader is in the lineup as he was in the AFC Championship.
Pacheco has been by far the team’s most efficient runner as he averaged 4.9 YPC during the regular season which jumped to 5.5 YPC in the playoffs. He ranked top ten among running backs in both DVOA and DYAR during the regular season, as well.
The Eagles’ run defense has improved down the stretch since adding veterans Linval Joseph and Ndamukong Suh, and they rank top ten in EPA and success rate since Week 11. Still, the Chiefs will look to have a balanced attack here, and I’m anticipating Pacheco having plenty of success.
The Verdict: Lean Over 48.5 Rushing Yards
Isiah Pacheco Over/Under 16.5 Receiving Yards
While he hasn’t been consistently used as a receiver this season, Isiah Pacheco came through with a season-high five catches for 59 yards against the Bengals in the AFC Championship last week. With receiving options limited due to injuries, his role became highly valuable.
Pacheco was in on 29 passing snaps last week which was a season high by far – his previous high was 17. Jerick McKinnon has mostly been the team’s receiving back, but his overall efficiency has been uninspiring, and it wouldn’t be surprising to see Pacheco steal work in passing situations in the Super Bowl.
Pacheco has only gone over this prop in five of his 19 games this season, but all five have come in the second half of the year. He has 17+ receiving yards in five of his last nine games, and his six targets last week indicate a likely growing role in the passing game for the rookie runner.
The Verdict: Lean Over 16.5 Receiving Yards
Isiah Pacheco Longest Rush Over/Under 13.5 Yards
Against the Jaguars in the Divisional Round, Patrick Mahomes went out with the high-ankle sprain, and it felt like the world was falling apart for the Chiefs. However, Isiah Pacheco took over with a big performance that included a massive 39-yard run on a touchdown drive.
In that game, Pacheco went over 13.5 yards for a long run for the seventh time in 19 games. However, he’s done it in five of the 11 games when he had double-digit carries this season. The Eagles have been much better against the run lately, but they’re still allowing 4.6 YPC, the ninth-most in the NFL.
The Eagles have also allowed a run of 14+ yards in 17 of their 19 games this season. Some of those were by quarterbacks, but the point stands that they can be susceptible to long runs. That will be especially true as they’ll have to play with a lighter box and commit more resources to the secondary against Mahomes.
The Verdict: Lean Longest Run Over 13.5 Yards
Isiah Pacheco Anytime Touchdown Scorer
While Isiah Pacheco has had a very impressive rookie season, his touchdowns haven’t followed suit – he’s only scored five times all year. It’s not his fault, really. The nature of the Chiefs offense is that there are a ton of players utilized in the red-zone, particularly through the air.
Patrick Mahomes had 41 passing touchdowns in the regular season, the most in the NFL. The Chiefs still had 18 rushing touchdowns, tied for the seventh-most, but those were shared between eight different players. In two playoff games, the Chiefs have five passing touchdowns but no rushing touchdowns.
Perhaps Pacheco finds the end zone through the air, or perhaps he runs one in from inside the 5-yard line like he has three times this year. However, while this game is projected to be high scoring, it’s far more likely Mahomes finds Travis Kelce and his receivers for the touchdowns rather than Pacheco.
The Verdict: Lean No
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