Jaguars Odds to Win Super Bowl 2021
Jaguars Odds to Win Super Bowl: +4600
Jaguars Win Total: 7.5
Jaguars Odds to Win Division: +300
Jaguars Odds to Win Conference: +2400
Jaguars Odds Analysis
Just three seasons removed from the franchise’s first AFC South title and a trip to the AFC Championship Game, the Jaguars find themselves in a full-fledged youth rebuild heading into the 2020-21 season. The Nick Foles experiment failed to materialize last year, but sixth-round pick Gardner Minshew performed well enough to be named the full-time starter heading into this season. Perhaps a youth movement is the best way for Jacksonville to move past the player unrest that has plagued the franchise the past two seasons.
Unfortunately, rebuilds typically require a few years of losing frustration before they yield success on the field. The Jaguars are not expected to be contenders this season, and this is reflected in their +20000 odds to win Super Bowl LV, the longest odds of all 32 NFL teams at FanDuel Sportsbook. Jacksonville also has the longest AFC Championship odds of any team in the conference at +7000. The low expectations have the team’s season win total set at just 5 games, with heavy juice on the under to boot.
AFC South Betting Analysis
The Jaguars bring up the rear in the AFC South betting odds, listed as +2000 longshots. The division is one that figures to be tightly contested and very much up for grabs. The Indianapolis Colts are the odds-on favorites at +135, followed by the Tennessee Titans at +165 and the defending division champion Houston Texans at +300.
The Colts hope that adding Philip Rivers will take them to the top. The Titans return the key contributors from a team that advanced to the AFC Championship Game last season. While the Texans stubbed their toe on some offseason roster decisions, they still have Deshaun Watson as their quarterback and can’t be counted out. There is an obvious discrepancy between these teams and the Jaguars in terms of ability to win now. This makes it very hard to get excited about betting Jaguars futures this year.
Jacksonville will have the chance to get their fresh young talent plenty of run this season. Part of that could involve playing spoiler against their AFC South foes. Divisional playthroughs come against the AFC and NFC North, while matchups determined through the final standings from last year provide a winnable game against the Miami Dolphins. If their young talent matures as the season progresses, opponents will be wrong to sleep on what could be one of the NFL’s hungriest, loosest-playing teams in the second half.
Jaguars Offseason and Draft
Many were surprised by ownership’s decision to retain both head coach Doug Marrone and GM David Caldwell. To their credit, they were able to land a swath of talent in the NFL Draft as the franchise rebuilds with an eye for the future.
Gardner Minshew was a pleasant surprise at quarterback given the limited draft capital the Jaguars spent to take him in the sixth round. Thrust into the fire when Nick Foles was injured in Week 1, Minshew played about as well as he could have behind a treacherous offensive line.
The Jaguars are set at running back with Leonard Fournette back this season. While he has dealt with injuries and concerns about his motivation throughout his first three NFL seasons, there is no denying his talent when healthy. He will be leaned on heavily this season but will also have his load lessened if Minshew and a formidable receiving unit can make noise in the passing game.
The connection between Minshew and wideout D.J. Chark was one of the few bright spots last year in Jacksonville. While Chark is undoubtedly the No. 1 receiver heading into this season, Dede Westbrook, Chris Conley, and rookie second-round pick Laviska Shenault Jr. are all worthy targets as well. Free agent signee Tyler Eifert gives the Jaguars the best receiving tight end that they’ve had in a while. If a patchwork offensive line can hold up, the Jaguars have plenty of skill position players capable of shining.
The strength of the Jaguars team that went to the 2017-18 AFC Championship Game was the defense. And while most of the major contributors from that team are now gone, there is reason for excitement about the young unit Jacksonville has assembled heading into 2020-21. End Yannick Ngakoue will be the leader. After voicing that he wanted out of Jacksonville, he will play the season under the franchise tag, opposite of Josh Allen up front. The linebacking unit of Myles Jack, free agent acquisition Joe Schobert, and first-round pick K’Lavon Chaisson is very intriguing. The Jaguars traded Jalen Ramsey last season and did not resign corner A.J. Bouye in free agency. Rookie top-10 pick C.J. Henderson is NFL-ready, and free agent pickup Rashaan Melvin is also a decent cover corner on the opposite side of the field.
– Budding Young Offensive Talent
– Playmakers at All Three Levels on Defense
– Expectations Are Limited to None
– Build Up of 2021 Draft Picks to Continue Rebuild
– Shaky Offensive Line
– Secondary Could be Exposed
– Youth and Inexperience
The Jaguars put together a solid offseason to accomplish the current goal of the franchise: rebuilding. Unfortunately, that goal and the construction of the team do not lend themselves to being very appealing for 2020-21 Super Bowl futures betting.
Jacksonville has the longest Super Bowl odds, AFC title odds, and AFC South division odds for a reason. Little is expected of the team this season, and while placing longshot wagers is enticing, it usually isn’t a profitable betting strategy.
The best way to bet the Jaguars is to pit them against themselves in the form of a win total wager. Betting the under requires a lot of juice at most books, but a 5 or 6-win season might not be inconceivable if things break right. If you really want to be bullish on Jacksonville while the rest of the market is bearish, the furthest I’d advise going is a Yes on making the playoffs at +750. But even that is very illogical.
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