Get Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Detroit Lions player prop picks & odds for the (12/04/2022) matchup.
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Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Detroit Lions Player Prop Picks
Two teams down in the standings but on the upswing collide in week 13 when the Detroit Lions (4-7) host the Jacksonville Jaguars (4-7) on Sunday, December 4. After a surprising upset win over the Baltimore Ravens, the Jaguars enter this game having won two of their last three games. The Lions were riding a three-game winning streak before playing the Bills on Thanksgiving Day, and they gave the Super Bowl contenders all they could handle before falling 28-25.
The Lions are slim 1-point favorites at home in this matchup, and the public money is split 50/50. In a highly competitive game that could go in many different directions, where can we find some value from a betting standpoint? Perhaps because they are often playing from behind, these teams actually both rank inside the top 10 in total offense. They are also fairly balanced between the run and the pass, as they are both within the top 13 in passing and in the top 10 in rushing. That creates some interesting decisions to make when we look at the options for player prop bets in this game.
Let’s take a look at the player prop bets I like the most in this Jaguars vs. Lions matchup.
Zay Jones over 4.5 receptions (+115 at PointsBet)
Jones had a career game last week against the Ravens, posting 11 catches for 145 yards on 14 targets. But that didn’t come out of nowhere. Jones has recorded five or more catches for three consecutive games and his 29 targets over that span trails Christian Kirk by only one for the team lead.
Jones and quarterback Trevor Lawrence have clearly been developing a solid chemistry of late, and there is no reason to expect that won’t continue against the lowly Lions pass defense. The Lions give up the third most catches per game to opposing wide receivers and the second-most yards. With that kind of juicy matchup, I’ll take the plus odds all day on Jones having another performance with five or more catches. I like his chances to go over 48.5 receiving yards as well, but I feel just as good about the receptions prop so I will take the one offering plus odds.
Trevor Lawrence over 22.5 pass completions (-115)
Let’s stack our Zay Jones play with the over on his quarterback’s passing completions. Lawrence has been turning it up a notch over the last three weeks and is coming off his best game of the season against the Ravens, going 29/37 (78.4%) for 321 yards and three touchdowns. He has completed a season-high 29 passes in consecutive weeks and has gone over 22.5 for three straight weeks and in seven of his 11 games this season. He has also hit the over on his completions number eight times this season.
In a game with shootout potential, I expect Lawrence to have plenty of opportunities to drop back and attack the Lions’ 29th-ranked passing defense. I like the over on his passing yards as well, which is set at 245.5 at PointsBet (-115) but as high as 253.5 at DraftKings.Lawrence has also eclipsed that number in back-to-back weeks.
D’Andre Swift over 22.5 receiving yards (-110)
Swift may have lost the Lions’ primary running back job to Jamaal Williams this season, but he is still their primary pass catching back and he had a season-high eight targets last week against the Bills. Swift has surpassed 22.5 receiving yards five times in eight games this season and has great matchup this week against the Jaguars’ defense. The Jaguars are allowing the fourth-most receptions (6.4) and the fourth-most yards (47.8) per game to opposing running backs this season.
After missing three games due to injury earlier this season, Swift is rounding back into form and has seen increased snaps in each of the last three games. He should get plenty of opportunities to catch the ball out of the backfield in this matchup.