Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Indianapolis Colts NFL Player Props & Picks (10/16/22)

Get Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Indianapolis Colts player prop picks & odds for the (10/16/22) matchup

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Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Indianapolis Colts Player Prop Picks

After getting thumped 24-0 by Jacksonville in week 2, the Indianapolis Colts (2-2-1) seek revenge on the Jaguars (2-3) when they host their division rival on Sunday, October 16 at Lucas Oil Stadium. Over the last 16 matchups between these teams dating back to 2014, the home team is 15-1. The Colts are 2-point favorites in this game with an over/under of 42 points. Let’s take a look at the player prop bets I like best in this matchup.

Trevor Lawrence over 238.5 passing yards (-115 on DraftKings)

Lawrence is averaging 246.4 passing yards per game this season, and that average is skewed by an outlier game against the Eagles in which he threw for only 174 yards due to a pouring rain and a tough Eagles defense. In his other four games, he has averaged 264.5 passing yards and has eclipsed this week’s prop line of 238.5 three times. The one that he didn’t was the game against the Colts, when he only threw the ball three times for eight yards in the fourth quarter due to the big lead, and he still finished with 235 yards.

The Colts’ defense is tough against the run, allowing just 96.6 yards per game (4th in the league). They are also stringy against the pass (216 yards per game), but in a game that is expected to be tight, the Jaguars are likely to be passing more than running. I like Lawrence to get enough volume to hit the over on 238.5 passing yards.

Evan Engram over 28.5 receiving yards (-118 on Caesars Sportsbook)

Let’s pick one of Lawrence’s pass catchers to pair with the over on his passing yards. The Colts have allowed the fewest passing yards to wide receivers this season (118.6 per game), but are 22nd at defending tight ends (56.2 yards per game).

Engram is averaging 33.6 yards per game after logging his best game of the season last week against the Texans, when he had six catches on 10 targets for 69 yards. He also had seven catches on eight targets for 46 yards in week two against the Colts, when he was Lawrence’s favorite target with a season-high 27% target share.

Of Lawrence’s top four pass catchers, Engram has the lowest prop line and plenty of good reasons to think he’ll eclipse his number of 28.5. If you’re going to roll with the over on Lawrence’s passing yards, Engram is the best option to stack him with, and he might have the safest prop line of any player in this game.

Mo-Alie Cox anytime touchdown (+480 on FanDuel)

This one might be more of a dart throw, but there are not a lot of great prop options in this game to me. Of the Colts’ six red zone touchdowns this season, five have come through the air compared to just one on the ground. Of those five passing touchdowns, four have gone to tight ends including two for Mo-Alie Cox. With nice plus odds of +480, I like betting on Cox to score a touchdown more than any other Colts player.