Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Kansas City Chiefs NFL Player Props & Picks (11/13/22)

Get Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Kansas City Chiefs player prop picks & odds for the (11/13/22) matchup

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Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Kansas City Chiefs Player Prop Picks

The Jacksonville Jaguars (3-6) are the second-biggest underdog on the week 10 slate as they visit the Kansas City Chiefs (6-2) on Sunday, November 13. The Chiefs are 9.5-point favorites in this game and roughly 70% of the public money is on the Chiefs laying the points. This game also has the highest over/under this week at 51. While roughly 70% of the handle is on the under, the line indicates oddsmakers expect this to be a high-scoring contest, with a likely game script where the Chiefs jump out to a lead and the Jaguars put up some numbers late in the game trying to mount a comeback.

But that’s not the only game script that could lead to plenty of offense. Each of these teams is in the top eight in total offense and the Chiefs are leading the league in scoring, while the two defenses in this matchup are average at best. Even if the Jaguars manage to keep it interesting well into the second half, it would likely be a result of their defense doing just enough to slow down Patrick Mahomes so that the offense can keep pace. With both defenses in the bottom third of the league in DVOA, it’s unlikely this becomes a defensive struggle.

So if we can expect some offense, where are those points and yards going to come from? Let’s take a look at the player prop bets I like the most in this Jaguars vs. Chiefs matchup.

Travis Etienne Jr. over 80.5 rushing yards (-115)

Oddsmakers are still adjusting to the breakout performances we have seen from Etienne Jr. over the last few weeks. Take advantage while you can and take the over once again on his rushing yards this week.

Etienne Jr. has hit the over on his rushing prop line in eight out of nine games this season and has surpassed 80 rushing yards for four consecutive weeks, including an active three-game streak of 100+ yard games. He is averaging 116.25 rushing yards per game over the last four games on an average of 6.12 yards per carry. That is elite production from the extremely talented second-year running back. There is a good reason why the Jaguars traded away James Robinson and gave the keys to Etienne Jr. to be their workhorse.

Don’t be fooled by the Chiefs’ fifth-ranked rushing defense. They have allowed a low number of rushing yards because of a low volume of carries by opposing runners. They face an average of 23 rushing attempts per game, third lowest in the league, and that’s not because teams are deterred by a staunch defensive front. It’s usually because they are playing with a lead and opponents are throwing the ball to keep up (more on that in a second). They are allowing a mediocre 4.4 yards per carry and rank 20th in rush defense DVOA. You can run on the Chiefs, and Etienne Jr. will get plenty of opportunities to do just that. He is averaging 22 rushing attempts on 80% of the snaps over the last three weeks.

If you’re worried about game script preventing Etienne Jr. from seeing enough carries to hit this number, I have two things to tell you. First, don’t be. The Jaguars are committed to Etienne Jr., and he is going to get the volume he needs even if the Jaguars are losing. Second, if it makes you feel better, then take the over on his combined rushing and receiving yards, which is at 102.5 on DraftKings (-115). He has gone over that number for five straight weeks and is averaging 3.4 targets, 2.3 receptions and 18.6 receiving yards during that span. If the Jaguars are forced to abandon the run, Etienne Jr. will still be plenty involved in the passing game.

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Patrick Mahomes under 302.5 passing yards (-115)

The question isn’t whether Mahomes could rack up well over 300 passing yards against this Jaguars defense. The question is whether he will need to.

Mahomes is leading the league with 325.6 passing yards per game and he has been especially good over the last three weeks, averaging 402.3 yards per game. Those numbers might make it nerve wracking to bet the under on his passing prop, but prior to that three-game stretch he had gone under 300 yards in the previous four games.

If the Chiefs win this game comfortably, as they are expected to do, it’s unlikely that Mahomes will need to air it out deep into the second half to secure the victory. If the Jaguars keep it close, then it’s probably because they are finding ways to slow down Mahomes. Either way, I see the game script playing out in a way that Mahomes cools off a bit this week and stays under 302.5 passing yards.

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Jerick McKinnon over 16.5 receiving yards (-115)

McKinnon has been the most reliable running back for the Chiefs this season and leads their backfield with a 45.7% snap share. He saw a season-high 62% of the snaps last week which led to six receptions on eight targets for 40 yards – all season-high marks for McKinnon. He has 19 or more receiving yards in four straight games and is a good bet to make it five straight against a Jaguars defense that is allowing 50.7 receiving yards to opposing running backs this season – fourth most in the league.

It may not be the sexiest pick in this game, but boring picks still win money.

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Noah hails from Philadelphia and is a diehard Philly sports fan. He graduated from Penn where he was a sports writer and editor for the student newspaper and also spent a summer covering the Baltimore Orioles for MLB.com. He has been playing fantasy sports since before live stats were a thing, and he has enjoyed learning the nuances of DFS in recent years. As a current resident of Florida, he is hoping the wave of sports betting legalization will eventually reach his home state.

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