Jacksonville Jaguars Vs. New York Jets NFL Player Props & Picks (12/22/22)
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Get Jacksonville Jaguars Vs. New York Jets player prop picks & odds for the (12/22/22) matchup.
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Jacksonville Jaguars Vs. New York Jets Player Prop Picks
When we looked ahead to this Thursday Night Football game before the season, we didn’t have high expectations for a matchup between the Jaguars and Jets. However, as we sit here heading into Week 16, these teams both have serious playoff aspirations. In this article, I’ll break down my favorite player prop values for this primetime game.
A major caveat for this article is the weather. The current forecast for East Rutherford calls for a 100% chance of rain and 15 mph winds. If those are the actual conditions come game time, it will obviously impact player props. I’ll do my best to account for that in this article, but make sure to check the latest forecast before you lock anything in.
You can check out our YouTube channel for further analysis on betting angles and player props for this game. In addition, use the player prop search tool above to compare odds from different sportsbooks in your market. Let’s get to work.
Christian Kirk Over 4.5 Receptions (+114 FanDuel)
It’s been a breakout season for Christian Kirk as he needs 34 more receiving yards to crack 1,000 for the first time in his career. He has averaged 5.2 receptions this year and has surpassed 4.5 catches in five of his last six games.
The Jets’ defense has been excellent against the pass all year, but they have been somewhat vulnerable against slot receivers. Over the last month, Michael Carter II, the team’s primary slot receiver, has a PFF coverage grade of just 56.4.
Ahmad Gardner and D.J. Reed are an excellent outside cornerback tandem, but they’ve combined to play just 14 snaps in the slot all year. Around 77% of Kirk’s snaps have come in the slot, so he’ll likely be able to avoid the coverage of Gardner and Reed.
The rainy conditions aren’t great for the passing game, but Kirk will likely be relied on as a short-area target as the Jaguars won’t be able to just run the ball. I considered Kirk’s receiving yardage line in this spot, but the plus value on his receptions was too good to pass up.
Trevor Lawrence Over 12.5 Rushing Yards (-110 DraftKings)
When you talk about mobile quarterbacks, Trevor Lawrence isn’t always at the forefront of the conversation, but he has sneaky athleticism that allows him to pick up yards with his feet. He’s averaging 17.1 rushing yards this season and has gone over this mark in five of his last seven games.
The Jets will show him a ton of different coverage looks and generate pressure with just four rushers, making this a tougher game for Lawrence to complete downfield passes. When there isn’t an open receiver, he’ll likely scramble.
The Jets have allowed 18.4 rushing yards per game to quarterbacks, but that includes a handful of quarterbacks who didn’t run at all against them. Given the conditions and the matchup, I expect Lawrence’s athleticism to shine on a couple more runs than normal.
Garrett Wilson Over 55.5 Receiving Yards (-115 DraftKings)
You might be hesitant to play the receiving yardage prop for a wide receiver catching passes in the rain from Zach Wilson, but Garrett Wilson is good enough to overcome those circumstances.
The rookie wideout has been brilliant as he’s averaging 93.1 receiving yards over his last seven games, a couple of those with Wilson. He’s surpassed this listed yardage number in six of those games, and he’s averaging 18.8 yards per reception over the last month.
The matchup here is excellent as the Jaguars rank dead last in pass defense DVOA and allow the most receiving yards per game. We’re getting an excellent discount at this number due to the weather and the poor quarterback play, but I’m happy backing Wilson despite those external factors.
