Jacksonville Jaguars vs Oakland Raiders (12/15/19): NFL Betting Picks, Lines

We wrote last week that we’d know a lot more about the 2019 Oakland Raiders after their Week 14 game against the Tennessee Titans, which was critical for their playoff hopes.

Well, the jury is in — Oakland is a mess. Sure, at 6-7, the Raiders’ record isn’t horrible, especially this season in which the league has been littered by porous teams. However, it’s difficult to fathom a team being as bad as what Oakland has displayed in the past three games, a downward spiral which has taken it out of serious contention for its first AFC West title in 17 years to a team that is all but eliminated from playoff contention with three games remaining.

The Raiders’ latest debacle was a, 42-21, home loss to the Titans on Sunday. The game was tied, 21-21, at halftime before the Titans took over in the second half. That has continued a nasty trait for Jon Gruden’s team. The Raiders have been outscored by a score of 98-20 in the third quarter this season. That is squarely on Gruden’s inability to make adjustments and react to the opposing coaching staff’s half-time adjustments. It’s been a problem since he returned to Oakland in 2018.

The lopsided loss to the Titans means the Raiders have now been outscored by a combined score of 116-33 in the past three games. The other two blowout losses came at the hands of the New York Jets and the Kansas City Chiefs on the road. Thus, Oakland has been outscored by an average of 38-11 in the past three games. Dreadful.

Oakland has lost six games by, at least, of 18 points this season. It is most in the NFL.

While the Raiders have not been playing well for three weeks, the loss to the Titans did signal one change – the Raiders were bad at home. They previously were 4-1 in Oakland (they also had a win in London over the Chicago Bears as the home team) before this game.

That takes us to this week. The Raiders have one remaining game in Oakland … forever. With the team moving to Las Vegas after the season, Sunday’s game against the Jacksonville Jaguars will be the last game in Oakland.

It is an emotional week in Oakland. It will be extremely meaningful for the team and its rapid fans Sunday.

Monday, the day after the Titans’ debacle, Gruden was already talking about how important this game will be. Gruden loves Oakland? When he returned to the team, he said he wanted to bring a championship to the city before the Raiders leave. That likely won’t happen. The Raiders can be officially eliminated from playoff contention with a loss to the Jaguars and a Pittsburgh Steelers win over the Buffalo Bills on Sunday night.

Still, Gruden – who celebrates home wins with fans in the Black Hole after games – badly wants to win this game. Expect the Raiders to be extremely motivated against a poor Jacksonville team. The Jaguars are 4-9 and the Raiders are 5-1 against teams with losing records.

Let’s look at some key betting elements to the game. Lines are based on a sampling of several sportsbooks:

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The Point Spread

The line: Oakland by 6.5 points.

Why: The Raiders may be struggling, but  so are the Jaguars. They have been outscored by 74 points in the past three games. So, this is a meeting between two struggling teams. But the Raiders – who opened as a 5.5-point favorite at most sportsbooks – are a better team. Plus, they usually play well against lesser opponents. Also, the emotions of this being the last game in Oakland plays a role in this point spread.

My lean: I’m all in on the Raiders. They may not be playing well at all, but Gruden will have this team ready to roll Sunday. It will be a mini Super Bowl for the team and fans. Three times since 2015, there was a chance that the Raiders were playing in their final game in Oakland. They ended up all being false alarms, but the Raiders won all three of those games. This is for sure the swan song in Oakland. And I see the Raiders going out on a high note.

The Total

The line: 45 points

Why: The Raiders have only scored a total of 36 points in the past three and a half games. But the Jaguars’ defense has been a sieve lately. The Jaguars have allowed 115 points in the past three games.  Jacksonville is allowing 25.9 points a game this season.

My lean: I lean toward the over. I think the Raiders will break out of their funk and I can see the Jaguars scoring some points against the poor Oakland defense.

The Moneyline

The line: Oakland is -295. Jacksonville is +235

My lean: I expect the Raiders to win, but this price is not worth it at all. I’d skip this bet.

Prop bets to consider

Raiders -6.5 and over +235

Why: I feel strongly about both of these bets, so this parlay is a way to make some good value.

Raiders by 7-12 points +390

Why: I can see the Raiders winning in this point range. It’s worth making this bet with a great value.

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