The Commanders host the Jaguars on Sunday in a game full of storylines. Carson Wentz is facing the team that ended his time in Indianapolis, Doug Pederson is making his debut as Jaguars head coach against his former quarterback, and the Commanders are playing their first game as…the Commanders.
In an under-the-radar game, keep an eye on these player props that could give you some real value on Sunday.
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Travis Etienne Over 46.5 Rushing Yards
I love the reports that keep coming out about Travis Etienne this summer. The 2021 first-rounder is fully healthy, and even with James Robinson set to receive a share of the load in the backfield, I’d be surprised if the Jaguars don’t feature Etienne often.
There might be some pause because he wasn’t a Doug Pederson draft pick, but neither was Robinson (or Lawrence). Someone will have to touch the ball, and it should be a dynamic talent like Etienne.
Washington had a pretty steady run defense in 2021, but I don’t expect the Jaguars to run any kind of air raid offense in Week 1. Jacksonville would be wise to run a well balanced offense, and with Robinson still getting up to speed, Etienne should get enough chances out of the Jags’ backfield.
Terry McLaurin Over 60.5 Receiving Yards
Carson Wentz isn’t a special quarterback by any means, but he’s better than anything Terry McLaurin has had in three years in the NFL. Nevertheless, McLaurin is coming off back-to-back 1,000-yard seasons, and he established himself as a long-term cornerstone of the franchise by signing a big extension this summer.
McLaurin totaled 60+ yards in 8 of his 17 games last season – including each of his first four – and I expect that number to rise in 2022. Why not attack the Jaguars’ secondary with your best player? I don’t think Scott Turner will overthink the offense on Sunday.
Logan Thomas Anytime Touchdown Scorer
This one’s far from a lock, but Logan Thomas typically found the end zone last season when he was healthy. While injuries have been a problem for Thomas, he enters Week 1 healthy and seemingly ready to serve as a major part of the Commanders’ offense. With 6 touchdown receptions in his last 12 regular season games, +280 is a great value for the quarterback-turned-tight end.
The risk, of course, is not knowing how Thomas and Carson Wentz will connect. What we do know is Scott Turner’s offenses frequently feature Thomas, and he should be able to deliver with Wentz after flashing a connection with both Alex Smith and Taylor Heinicke.
Christian Kirk 60+ Receiving Yards
The Jaguars gave Christian Kirk a massive deal for a reason. Whether he’s earned $18M/year or not (he hasn’t), he’s going to get targeted like a legitimate No. 1 receiver. Kirk was already a favorite target of Trevor Lawrence in the preseason, so these two have a connection already.