Get Jacksonville Jaguars Vs. Kansas City Chiefs player prop picks & odds for the (1/21/23) matchup
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Jacksonville Jaguars Vs. Kansas City Chiefs Player Prop Picks
The first of four NFL divisional round matchups features the Chiefs hosting the Jaguars, a team they already beat this season. Kansas City sits as an 8.5 or 9-point favorite, and that spread tells us a lot about the expected game script, which helps in projecting player props.
In this article, I’ll break down my favorite player props from this playoff game. You can find more coverage for this and every divisional round game on our YouTube channel. Make sure to use the player prop search tool above to compare odds from different sportsbooks. Let’s get to work.
Travis Kelce Over 79.5 Receiving Yards (-115 BetMGM)
We’re getting great value on this Kelce prop due to how he finished the season with 43 and 38 yards in his final two games. He went under this prop in five of his seven games to close out the regular season.
However, Kelce has been excellent throughout his career in the playoffs with just over 86 receiving yards per game in the postseason. He also has 95+ yards in six straight playoff games.
The Jaguars rank 32nd in DVOA against tight ends and 31st in yards per reception allowed to the position. Last week, Gerald Everett and Donald Parham combined for 132 receiving yards against Jacksonville.
At the time I’m writing this, the market is still sitting at 79.5 yards. However, FanDuel has it priced at 81.5 yards, and I do expect this number to continue climbing up until game time. I’d probably play it up to around 84.5 yards, but I can easily see Kelce finishing with 100+ yards here.
Travis Etienne Over 20.5 Receiving Yards (-105 PointsBet)
I had some concerns about JaMychal Hasty’s increasing workload towards the end of the regular season, but now it’s clear that was mostly a precautionary measure to keep Etienne healthy – he saw a 86.5% snap share and handled 100% of the team’s backfield touches last week.
When the Chiefs and Jaguars played in Week 10, Etienne finished with three catches for 28 yards. The Chiefs play two high safeties at the highest rate in the NFL and play man coverage at one of the highest rates, leaving the middle of the field more open for Etienne to beat linebackers one-on-one in coverage.
Kansas City allowed the most receptions and third-most receiving yards to running backs in the regular season. They were also highly vulnerable in the slot, and Etienne played a season-high five snaps out of the slot against the Chargers last week.
We’re seeing movement on this prop, and it’s up a few yards from where I grabbed it a couple of days ago. However, I’d still play it at the current number of 20.5, and I believe he finishes with 30+ receiving yards more often than not in this game.
JuJu Smith-Schuster Over 55.5 Receiving Yards (-110 BetMGM)
JuJu Smith-Schuster has been rather hit or miss this season. He has seven games with 70+ yards and eight games with less than 40. However, there has been a strong trend to his usage – he has a 60.8% target share against zone coverage compared to 29.9% against man coverage.
The Jaguars played a high degree of zone defense against the Chiefs in Week 10, and while they might modify their strategy somewhat, they won’t stray too far from the zone-heavy defense they’ve been all season.
Smith-Schuster also plays 41% of his snaps out of the slot, where he’ll draw a great matchup. Tre Herndon, the Jaguars’ primary slot corner, ranks 95th out of 135 qualified corners in PFF grade and allows a 119.5 passer rating, the 17th-highest in that sample.
Patrick brought up this prop on our YouTube video, and you should check it out for more analysis. I think it’s a great angle, and I’d be playing it if I wasn’t already invested in Travis Kelce. Still, I think there’s a high chance that both receivers hit.