Jake Paul-Julio Cesar Chavez Jr. Fight Odds, Picks, Predictions, Start Time: Bet On Massive Favorite?
Jake Paul, a social media influencer and boxer, reenters the ring against Julio Cesar Chavez Jr. on Saturday night. After winning by unanimous decision over Mike Tyson in November, Paul is currently a -700 versus the former WBC middleweight titleholder. From 2011-12, Chavez tallied three title defenses and took on an opponent less than a year ago, earning a unanimous decision over ex-UFC fighter Uriah Hall. Below is insight from Nick Kalikas, a former oddsmaker-turned-professional bettor, on the Paul-Chavez odds at BetMGM Sportsbook, Caesars Sportsbook, and DraftKings Sportsbook.
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Paul-Chavez Betting Odds: Fight Result
| Fighter | BetMGM Odds | Caesars Odds | DraftKings Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Paul | -700 | -700 | -575 |
| Julio Cesar Chavez Jr. | +400 | +425 | +400 |
Fight Length
| Total Rounds | DraftKings Odds |
|---|---|
| Over 8.5 | -225 |
| Under 8.5 | +160 |
Winning Method
| Fight Outcome | DraftKings Odds |
|---|---|
| Paul By KO/TKO/DQ | +165 |
| Paul By Decision Or Technical Decision | -110 |
| Draw | +1800 |
| Chavez By KO/TKO/DQ | +800 |
| Chavez By Decision Or Technical Decision | +900 |
Paul vs. Chavez Fight: Should Odds Heavily Favor Ex-YouTube Star?
After opening as a -1100 favorite to emerge victorious at the Honda Center in Anaheim, Calif., Paul’s odds have noticeably taken a dip. Although the market remains greatly in Paul’s favor, the majority of bettors are backing Chavez at BetMGM Sportsbook, with 85.5% of wagers and 96.5% of the money wagered on the underdog.
As previously mentioned, Kalikas recently served as the risk supervisor at Circa Sports in Las Vegas, specializing in MMA and boxing odds. He noted that he would’ve opened Paul closer to -400 to attract more two-way action on the event. However, Kalikas recognized that sportsbooks were also vying to avoid a flurry of bets on Paul, considering the number of parlays that will involve the 28-year-old boxer.
“Since this was a hand-picked fight, the sportsbooks were trying to need that side (Paul to win),” Kalikas said. “It’s a smart move, but it gets a little dangerous when your exposure is a little too high with ‘dog money across the board. I would rather take early action on Paul and get buy-back on Chavez.”
Paul is set to take part in his 13th professional boxing match, notching an 11-1 record with seven wins by knockout. His lone defeat came against Tommy Fury in February 2023. While Chavez has won eight of his last 13 fights, he hasn’t fought for a title since April 2015, retiring in the ninth round of the WBC International light heavyweight bout against Andrzej Fonfara.
Betting On Paul-Chavez Odds
Regarding MMA and boxing markets, Kalikas stated that he generally finds more betting value with underdogs. Nevertheless, he doesn’t see a path for Chavez, the son of legendary Mexican boxer Julio Cesar Chavez Sr. Instead, he’d rather invest in Paul if a cheaper price surfaces.
“He (Paul) is a very talented promoter, and he’s picked off some big names in the MMA world,” Kalikas said. “The sharp side is the chalk. Pre-fight, Paul said he’s going to go out there and knock him, and he has some power. Once they get out there, Chavez could be hard to put away early. I still don’t know if Paul will go for the knockout. He lacks that professional, high-level experience.”
Most sportsbooks profited from the Paul vs. Tyson bout reaching a full eight rounds. With that in mind, Kalikas acknowledged that the “total” is properly priced and would shy away from betting on longshot props like “Paul by knockout.”
By converting the odds above to implied probability, this fight has a 69.2% chance of going nine rounds.
How Can I Watch Paul-Chavez Fight Card?
Coverage starts on Saturday at 8 p.m. ET on DAZN pay-per-view. The main event is tentatively scheduled for 11 p.m. ET.
- Join Lineups’ free sports betting Discord channel, with more than 5,200 community members discussing sports betting 24-7-365.
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