Get Jalen Hurts player prop picks & odds for the (1/29/23) matchup
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Jalen Hurts Player Prop Picks (1/29/23)
After dealing with a shoulder injury that kept him out for two games earlier this season, Jalen Hurts returned to the lineup in Week 18. The bye week was a big benefit to him, but he has told reporters that he has “felt better” and still isn’t close to 100%. How will that impact his on-field performance against one of the best defenses he’s faced all year?
Hurts wasn’t asked to do a ton last week as the Eagles boat raced the Giants in a game that was every bit of a blowout as the final score suggests. It won’t be as easy for him this week as the 49ers are one of the best defensive teams in the NFL.
In this article, I’ll take a look at some different ways to play Jalen Hurts’s player props in the NFC Conference Championship game. As always, make sure you are using the player prop search tool above as these lines can vary significantly across different platforms. Check out the Lineups site and YouTube channel for further coverage. Let’s get to work.
Jalen Hurts Over 247.5 Passing Yards (-114 FanDuel)
The Eagles might need to play a bit out of their comfort zone this week. The 49ers have been excellent against the run all season and they rank second in both run defense DVOA and EPA. As a result, opponents have thrown the ball on 62.1% of plays against San Francisco, which is the second-highest rate in the league.
When the Eagles faced the Titans in Week 13, they had a 77.1% pass play rate in the first half. That was way higher than their normal rate, and I wouldn’t be surprised if they are similarly pass-heavy given the matchup. With A.J. Brown, DeVonta Smith, and Dallas Goedert now healthy, Hurts has plenty of weapons in the passing game.
Overall, San Francisco has perhaps the best defense in the NFL. However, they have been vulnerable against the deep ball – they rank 24th in DVOA against deep passes, per Football Outsiders. Hurts ranks top ten in both yards per attempt and passer rating on passes 20+ yards downfield, so he could expose that relative weakness in the defense.
We’re getting a strong value on this line as Hurts has been under 230 passing yards in six of his last eight games. However, he also has four games with 300+ passing yards as he’s shown full capability of succeeding through the air when the situation has called for it. It calls for it on Sunday, and I expect Hurts to deliver.
Jalen Hurts Under 46.5 Rushing Yards (-114 FanDuel)
With Hurts likely seeing an uptick in passing volume, I’m projecting a decrease in his rushing production. The 49ers, like I mentioned above, had one of the best run defenses in the NFL this season. Overall, they allowed just 79 rushing yards per game, which was the second-fewest in the NFL.
Last week, I played the over on Dak Prescott’s rushing yards against San Francisco. While that hit, it mostly came on one scramble away from pressure. Hurts will have some scramble yards in this game, but I don’t believe designed runs will be quite as big of a part of the game plan given the matchup.
San Francisco has been somewhat generous to quarterbacks on the ground – Prescott (22), Geno Smith (28), and Jarrett Stidham (34) have gone over their rushing prop against them over the last month. However, the Niners weren’t playing to defend runs by those quarterbacks. This week, defending Hurts’s mobility will be a top priority for their defense.
Finally, add in Hurts’s shoulder injury, and the Eagles might be slightly more conservative with using him on the ground. Of course, this is the NFC Championship, and there isn’t a next week if they lose, but keeping Hurts healthy for the full game is paramount. All of these factors make me intrigued by the under here.