Get Jalen Hurts player prop picks & odds for the (2/12/23) matchup
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Jalen Hurts Player Prop Picks
The rise of Jalen Hurts has been exhilarating and, in some ways, highly predictable. He’s always had the type of attitude and demeanor that you’d want from your franchise quarterback. Now, he’s set to face Patrick Mahomes in Super Bowl LVII. In this article, I’ll take a look at some of his player props.
As always, be sure to use the player prop search tool above to compare odds from different sportsbooks. Odds can vary widely, and shopping for the best number available is incredibly important in the long run. In addition, check out our Lineups YouTube page for more player prop content. Let’s get to work.
Jalen Hurts Over/Under 49.5 Rushing Yards
One of the best dual-threat quarterbacks in the league, Jalen Hurts has been an elite runner at times this season. He has only gone over the 50-yard threshold in seven of his 17 games played (including the two playoff games), but he has 60+ yards in six of those seven.
Hurts has hit the under on his rushing yardage prop in eight of his last nine games, but the two weeks off here should give him an opportunity to get healthier. He still had 34 and 39 rushing yards in the two playoff games despite dealing with the shoulder injury and both games being blowouts.
The Chiefs allowed the fifth-most rushing yards to quarterbacks this year and since their Week 8 bye, it’s been the second-most. Jarrett Stidham, Russell Wilson, Joe Burrow, Byrce Perkins, and Malik Willis all have 40+ rushing yards against them.
The current record for rushing yards by a quarterback in the Super Bowl is Steve McNair with 64 in Super Bowl XXXIV. I believe Hurts has the chance to surpass that number here, and the over on his rushing yardage is one of my favorite props on the board.
The Verdict: Bet Over 49.5 Rushing Yards
Jalen Hurts Over/Under 239.5 Passing Yards
The Eagles have consistently blown teams out this season, and that’s often resulted in reduced passing volume for Jalen Hurts. He has under 200 passing yards in six games, including the team’s two playoff games thus far where he had 154 and 121 passing yards.
The increased line here is obviously due to the projected game script – the Eagles are just 1.5-point favorites and Patrick Mahomes will give their defense all it can handle. As such, Hurts should see an increase in his passing volume.
The Chiefs’ secondary has improved down the stretch as they’ve used dime personnel (6+ defensive backs) on 30+% of plays in four of their last five games. As a result, they rank second among playoff teams in pass defense success rate after ranking just 16th in the regular season.
The obvious drawback to that strategy is that it leads to lighter boxes, and that’s a problem against the Eagles’ elite rushing offense. It’s a pick-your-poison situation for Steve Spagnuolo and his defense, and how he decides to handle it will go a long way in deciding how many passing yards Hurts winds up with.
The Verdict: Lean Over 239.5 Passing Yards
Jalen Hurts Over/Under 1.5 Passing Touchdowns
The prop for Jalen Hurts’s passing touchdowns is set at about even money to the over and under at 1.5. That makes sense, as Hurts has 2+ passing touchdowns in nine of his seventeen games this season, good for a 53% hit rate.
In this game specifically, he should have an opportunity for a couple of scores through the air. The over/under is set at 50.5 points, and I broke down why I like the over in this game. I envision a fast-paced, back and forth shootout between two great offenses.
The Chiefs allowed 1.8 passing touchdowns per game this season, the most in the NFL. They haven’t allowed a 2-touchdown game to a quarterback since Week 15, but Davis Mills, Russell Wilson, and Jimmy Garropolo are some of the underwhelming passers with multiple touchdowns against them.
I ultimately wouldn’t play this prop just because the Eagles are an elite rushing offense, and their touchdowns in this game could easily come on the ground. However, there’s great correlative value to this prop and I’d highly recommend using it in a SGP.
The Verdict: Lean Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns, Use in a SGP
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