Get Ja’Marr Chase player prop picks & odds for the (1/22/23) matchup.
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Ja’Marr Chase Player Prop Picks vs Bills
Cincinnati will look to move onto a second consecutive AFC Championship, but first, need to go into Buffalo and get a win. With three offensive linemen out, the Bengals offense could very well be limited. Does this bode well for Ja’Marr Chase receiving props?
Ja’Marr Chase o7.5 Receptions (+100)
Buffalo’s secondary still deserves a ton of respect but this isn’t a stay-way situation for overs with Ja’Marr Chase. Buffalo ranks 29th in DVOA against WR1s. I don’t expect Tre’Davious White to shadow Chase and he will line up against Dane Jackson and White fairly equally.
With the Bengals offensive line issues, it will limit the ability to open things up for Tee Higgins downfield and we will tend to see more underneath and quick passes. Cincinnati has not had an efficient rushing attack this season and Joe Mixon’s rushing upside has been capped because of it. Look for Burrow to offset that with some quick passes, very similar to what we saw against Baltimore last week.
I much rather attack his receptions over receiving yards, given his yards per catch numbers has dropped over the last five games to 10.1. He will likely soak up a lot of 7-8 yard receptions in this spot giving a safer lean to the receptions and also getting solid value.
Chase has averaged 8.4 receptions in his last five games. Burrow should be throwing often and the Bills have allowed the 4th most pass attempts per game. Opportunities will be high and can allow for a couple of dud drives.
Ja’Marr Chase Under 25.5 Longest Reception (-110)
To tag along with the theme of shorter passes, Chase under 25.5 has already been a strong play of late, hitting in four of the last five. He has only been above this number in 5 of 13 games this season.
Buffalo ranks 6th in opponent yards per completion, which is slightly ahead of the Ravens who rank 13th. The Bills are also above average in allowing YAC. An emphasis will certainly be to keep anything going over the top, as more teams have played the Bengals this way on the year. The pass-rush being aided by injuries will certainly limit throw time for Burrow.