Get Jerick McKinnon player prop picks & odds for the (2/12/23) matchup
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Jerick McKinnon Player Prop Picks
Jerick McKinnon had a stretch towards the end of the regular season with 416 yards from scrimmage and nine touchdowns in six games. He helped many people win fantasy football championships. However, he’s been less involved in the offense through two playoff games. Does that provide an opportunity to fade his player props in the Super Bowl?
In this article, I’ll take a look at the top player props available for Jerick McKinnon. You can find a ton of player prop content on the Lineups site and our YouTube channel. Be sure to use the player prop search tool above to compare odds from different sportsbooks as they can vary widely. Let’s get to work.
Jerick McKinnon Over/Under 21.5 Rushing Yards
One of my favorite player props for the Super Bowl is the under on Jerick McKinnon’s rushing yards. He has mostly been invisible in this offense lately as he has five or fewer carries and 30 or fewer snaps in four of his last five games. It’s easy to see why, too.
Over that five-game span, he’s averaging just 1.8 YPC compared to Isiah Pacheco who is averaging 5.5 YPC in the playoffs. Pacheco has been the far more dynamic option in the run game, and even Clyde Edwards-Helaire could steal a couple of carries after he was activated from the IR.
The one game where McKinnon went over in the last five was in the Divisional Round when Patrick Mahomes suffered the high-ankle sprain and the offense was more run-heavy. Still, he needed 11 carries to get to 25 yards, and it’s difficult to envision that type of volume for McKinnon here.
The Verdict: Bet Under 21.5 Rushing Yards
Jerick McKinnon Longest Rush Over/Under 8.5 Yards
Along with the under on rushing yards for McKinnon, I like the under on his longest rush prop. He’s only hit the over on this prop in four of his 19 games this season, and they all came in just five of his 87 carries all season went for 10+ yards – that’s one of every 17.5 rushing attempts.
It’s highly unlikely he sees over 17.5 rushing attempts here, and his rushing attempt prop is juiced to the under at 5.5. It’s highly conceivable that he could finish with just a couple of carries given all of the factors I mentioned above.
McKinnon’s longest rush prop opened at 9.5 yards, but I still see enough value to bet it at 8.5 yards. Personally, I have a full unit on the under for both McKinnon’s rushing yards under and longest rush under.
The Verdict: Bet Longest Rush Under 8.5 Yards
Jerick McKinnon Over/Under 20.5 Receiving Yards
If there’s one area to still have some confidence in McKinnon, it’s in the receiving game. He went under this number in both playoff games so far, but the Jaguars game had a lower passing volume like I mentioned above and in the Bengals game he had two catches on four targets for 17 yards.
McKinnon went over this receiving yardage number in five of seven games to finish the regular season, and he’s proven to be a reliable pass-catcher throughout his career. While Pacheco led the backfield in receiving last week, it’s highly conceivable that McKinnon could get back to a higher target share this week.
In addition, the Chiefs are dealing with injuries to wide receivers JuJu Smith-Schuster, Kadarius Toney, and Mecole Hardman. If any or all sit, McKinnon would be even more valuable in the passing game. I’d contemplate a play on the over here, but I don’t see enough value.
The Verdict: Lean Over 20.5 Receiving Yards
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