Joe Burrow Passing Props vs Bills (1/22/23) NFL Divisional Round Player Props
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Joe Burrow Player Prop Picks vs Bills
The Cincinnati Bengals get set to take on the Buffalo Bills on Sunday night in the AFC Divisional Round in what is slated as the most highly anticipated game of the weekend. With Joe Burrow looking to continue his AFC playoff win streak, sportsbooks have laid out their line projections for what they expect of the third year quarterback. Here’s a look at what those projections are and where their might be value in betting the lines.
Joe Burrow u1.5 Touchdowns (+105)
While the game script for this AFC Divisional headliner could lend itself to a pass first attack for the Bengals, there is something to be said about getting plus money on a passing touchdown prop.
When evaluating touchdown props there are generally two primary factors to consider — the first of which being the matchups of the game.
The Bengals will likely enter Sunday night without three of their starting offensive linemen in La’el Collins, Jonah Williams, and Alex Kappa as they go up against one of the best pass rushing defensive lines in the NFL.
Throughout the regular season, no team in the AFC was able to generate pressure at a higher rate than the Buffalo Bills. They also finished with a top 10 coverage unit. The Bengals, meanwhile, attempted the 7th most passes of all teams in the NFL.
The second part of this prop equation is the general randomness to it. Because individual team touchdowns are a scarce event, they need to be evaluated differently than more common events such as attempts and completions.
While 2+ touchdowns is certainly possible, the matchups in this game would suggest that the Bengals may be better off running the ball in goal-to-go situations and generally may have problems passing the ball downfield.
If you’re getting plus money on this prop, which you are in this case at +105,then there’s a strong case to be made that that’s where the value is.
Joe Burrow o25.5 Completions (-130)
If the second half of the Bengals vs Ravens Wild Card game provided any foray into what Cincinnati’s passing attack looks like with this newest offensive line iteration, they will likely attack the Buffalo secondary with long 10+ play drives that involve a lot of 7-8 yard hitch routes and short slants over the middle.
Without Jonah Williams, the Bengals had one successful drive in the entirety of the second half and it was a 12 play drive that involved 6 passes and 6 runs. Of their next three drives, none of which scored, the Bengals passed the ball on over 58 percent of their plays.
Perhaps the biggest thing to take away from this sequence is the fact that Burrow had to get the ball out quickly to avoid pressure in his face.
Though the Bills will be without Vonn Miller at edge, the depth of their defensive line has been a strength all season.
Joe Burrow o39.5 Attempts (-125)
This one goes hand-and-hand with the Burrow completions prop. While the injuries at offensive line remain the chief concern amongst Bengals fans, the injuries in the secondary should also be a reason for some concern.
Without Chidobe Awuzie, the Bengals are more vulnerable at corner than they were during their postseason run last year. This means that the Bills passing attack with Josh Allen and Stephon Diggs could buy some quick strikes over the top.
If the Bills get an early lead, which the sportsbook currently project, expect Burrow to drop back quite a bit in the second half.
The Bengals offensive line is bad, but we’ve seen Burrow and this receiving corps be able to get into a rhythm even with consistent pressure.
Joe Burrow o279.5 Passing Yards (-115)
Rounding out a pass-heavy game script prop card, Joe Burrow over 279.5 passing yards feels like it has some marginal value to it in the sense that the Bills would likely shift to a soft shell coverage scheme in the fourth quarter if they have a lead.
If so, the opportunities for Burrow to rack up late-game yardage will be plentiful. Moreover, if things get desperate, we could see Burrow really try to air it out into coverage he otherwise wouldn’t.
Some of Burrows most impressive games this season from a yardage standpoint have come in either losses or one possession games. With this line trending the way it is, that reality is very much on the table entering Sunday night.
