Joe Burrow Passing Props vs Chiefs (1/29/23) NFL Conference Round Player Props

Get Joe Burrow player prop picks & odds for the (1/29/23) matchup

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Joe Burrow Player Prop Picks

The Bengals had a dominant 27-10 win over the Bills last week, and Joe Burrow’s play was a big reason why. The offensive line injuries everyone was scared about didn’t end up mattering much as Burrow got the ball out quickly and decisively on his way to a strong showing. He completed 63.9% of his passes for 242 yards and two touchdowns in the win.

In this article, I’ll cover some of the various player props you can find for Joe Burrow as we head into the AFC Championship. Check out the rest of the Lineups site for other player prop pages, analysis on spreads and totals, and exclusive bonus offers at different sports books. In addition, check out our YouTube page for extensive coverage of the two games.

Make sure to use the player prop search tool above to compare odds from different books in your market as they can vary significantly across different platforms. In the long run, it’s pivotal to make sure you’re getting the best value possible to maximize your chances of profitability. Let’s dive in.

Joe Burrow Passing Yardage Market

The odds for Joe Burrow’s passing yardage prop varies across different books, and there’s a potential opportunity for an arbitrage bet depending on how comfortable you feel with that strategy. You can find Burrow over 276.5 passing yards at -122 odds on FanDuel whereas the under is available at 280.5 at -115 odds.

Joe Burrow hasn’t been passing at a high volume lately, and he’s been held under 250 passing yards in six of his last eight games. However, when he faced the Chiefs earlier this season, he finished with 286 passing yards. In three career games against Kansas City, he’s averaging just over 327 passing yards per game.

The Chiefs’ pass defense hasn’t been very good this season. They rank 20th in pass defense DVOA and 16th in dropback EPA allowed. However, they held Trevor Lawrence to just 217 passing yards last week and six straight quarterbacks against Kansas City have finished with under 250 passing yards.

Game script could decide the outcome here as the Bengals would likely love to establish their run game if they can find a lead. Patrick Mahomes’s health will be big for that approach. Ultimately, I don’t see a lot of value either way on this prop, and I’m looking for other opportunities to make plays in this game.

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Joe Burrow Over 17.5 Rushing Yards (-111 Caesars)

I broke down Joe Burrow’s performance as a passer above, but my favorite way to play his props is with his rushing yardage. Burrow finished the game against the Bills with six carries for 31 yards, and PFF tracked him with four designed runs in that game. His mobility was crucial to keeping Buffalo’s pass rush off balance behind Cincy’s banged up O-line.

Burrow isn’t known as a running quarterback necessarily, and he had ten or fewer rushing yards in five straight games prior to last week’s game against the Bills. However, the line here helps tell a story as the books are expecting more rushing production from Burrow. I’m inclined to agree.

When Burrow faced the Chiefs earlier this season, he finished with 11 rushes for 46 yards. The Chiefs have struggled against rushing quarterbacks down the stretch as they’ve allowed 378 rushing yards to passers since their Week 8 bye. Only the Lions have allowed more over that span – they’ve coughed up 515 yards.

The Chiefs haven’t exactly faced a slew of dual-threat dynamos over that span – Trevor Lawrence (26), Jarrett Stidham (50), Russell Wilson (27 and 57), and Davis Mills (21) are some of the quarterbacks to surpass the 17.5 rushing yard line against them in recent weeks. 30+ rushing yards is well within the range of outcomes for Burrow here.

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I've been a huge sports fan for as long as I can remember and I've always loved writing. In 2020, I joined the Lineups team, and I've been producing written and video content on football and basketball ever since. In May 2021, I graduated from the University of Michigan with a degree in sport management. My goal is to tell enthralling stories and provide meaningful insight on the sports I write about while helping you cash some bets along the way.

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