As the Super Bowl nears, so do questions about who is most likely to win this year’s Super Bowl MVP. DraftKings has Matthew Stafford and Joe Burrow leading the odds at +100 and +225, respectively. Further down their list lies Joe Mixon, the workhorse that commands the Cincinnati run offense. DraftKings currently has Mixon at +4500 to win the MVP award on Sunday.
Terrell Davis of the Denver Broncos was the last running back to win the Super Bowl MVP award. He tallied 157 yards on the run and three touchdowns. That was 25 years ago. He is one of seven running backs that have ever won the Super Bowl MVP award. If Mixon is to win this award, he will have to go off, especially if he will be up against Joe Burrow.
Joe Mixon Super Bowl 56 MVP Odds
Mixon had 17 touchdowns in 20 games this year including five games with two touchdowns. The workhorse is averaging 17.3 carries and 63.33 yards per game along with a touchdown for this Bengals offense in the postseason. He can exploit the fact that 54.5% of touchdowns against this Rams defense this regular season came on the ground at their home field. However, the Rams defense have allowed just 54 yards on the run per game this postseason, making Mixon’s job significantly harder, especially against a ferocious defensive line like the Rams have.
The Bengals offensive line, widely considered the worst in the league, will likely be focused (hopefully) on keeping Joe Burrow vertical, which may give Mixon some more running room. But honestly, that’s asking a lot of this O-line who has just continually struggled with that all year – this offensive and defensive line matchup is the most polarized matchup of the game. The Rams defense is also coming off a performance where they held a hot San Francisco offense to 50 yards on the run over 20 carries, so they certainly have their run defense groove figured out now, if they didn’t in the regular season. But, what’s so cool about Mixon is that he’s helped their passing offense as well. He’s proved to be a solid option for Burrow in a pinch and has tallied 420 receiving yards (including postseason) and three receiving touchdowns this year. If his versatility emerges in this game, then he has a better chance of snatching this trophy and giving the Rams defense another receiver to deal with.
Mixon is coming off an above average game where he ran for 88 yards and caught for another 27 for 115 all-purpose yards, 28 of which came in the final 42-yard drive of the game that punched their ticket to the Super Bowl. Mixon’s 2-yard gain on first and goal led to Ja’Marr Chase’s game tying touchdown and two-point conversion.
Let it be known that Mixon is certainly talented enough to win this award. But between the amount that is required of a running back to win and the already-small likelihood of a running back winning it in general, I’d say +4500 is about right. It’d be hard to choose against Joe Burrow if the Bengals win, considering what his leadership at such a young age has done for this team this year. The odds are slim, but not impossible. So, if you are a big Mixon fan and believe in his abilities, then this would be a good value bet for you.