John Deere Classic Odds & Golf DFS Picks: 4 Longshot Best Bets, Including Emiliano Grillo
It’s another birdie-fest week for golf DFS contestants on the PGA Tour, as we head to the Quad Cities for the 2025 John Deere Classic at TPC Deere Run. Although birdie-fests have traditionally been the best opportunity to fire away at tour golf sleepers with longer odds, the lack of field depth at the John Deere Classic has historically led to fewer surprises. Just two players over the last 11 years have gone on to win at golf odds longer than 100-1.
Generous fairways and greens have paved the way for winning scores to eclipse -20 year over year at this event, but players will need to show solid leading form in both their ball striking and short game in order to separate from the field here, making TPC Deere Run a slightly more imposing test than your typical putting contest.
Ahead, we’ll dive into the most viable longshot options to consider for the 2025 John Deere Classic.
John Deere Classic Golf DFS: Betting Odds
TPC Deere Run: Course Introduction
For the second week in a row, there will be little resistance offered by the course, as TPC Deere Run lacks any meaningful penalty for inaccurate ball-strikers. Not much strategy is required to score well at this venue, as the successful debutants continue to prove year-over-year. It figures to be another week where the hottest putters are the ones who can separate.
Birdies will be a commodity at this venue, and we’ve seen many different avenues for players to score here. While distance always tends to be advantageous, accurate plodders have fared just as well here over the years. The most in-form players, with the ability to spike with their irons and putters, tend to rise to the top at TPC Deere Run.
John Deere Classic Course Specs
For a deeper dive into the course, check out my John Deere Classic betting preview.
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John Deere Classic: Golf DFS Picks & Longshot Bets
To identify “value” any given week on the tour, I find it’s best first to understand the consensus key stat profile. Then, take a stance on the elements of the tournament that may go overlooked. At the John Deere Classic, Recent Form, Birdies or Better Gained, and Course History are consensus key areas factored into each player’s price. Like the Rocket Mortgage Classic last week, this event offers an appealing buy-low opportunity for more inconsistent players who have proven most capable of contending on easier layouts where streaky putting is the key to separation.
Below, find my favorite value PGA golf DFS picks and longshots for the 2025 John Deere Classic. Stats pulled across the last 36 Rounds unless otherwise noted.
Emiliano Grillo:
A veteran with a long history of playing his best golf on short and easy courses, TPC Deere Run is exactly the type of course set up on which Grillo has feasted throughout his career. With four top-25 finishes over his last five starts, his form remains in top shape to continue that trend this week.
The 2023 Charles Schwab Challenge winner is no stranger to navigating short, positional venues. He ranks top-20 in Comp Course History, and is elite in the stat categories that matter most at TPC Deere Run. He ranks top-5 in SG: TOT (L36), SG: Ball Striking, SG: APP, and Prox: 100-150. That has translated to success at TPC Deere Run in the past, posting a career-best T2 finish in his 2022 debut.
With his putter starting to cooperate and ball striking form in top shape, Grillo could be dangerous in the Quad Cities this week.
Matt McCarty:
In cases of extreme birdie-fests like this stretch, I typically find it’s best to overlook immediate recent form in favor of fall swing performance, especially when course setups are at their easiest. It’s a different mentality to step into an event knowing 20-under-par won’t be good enough to win, as these birdie fests are a four-day sprint that requires perfection to come out on top.
McCarty was the best version of himself last fall, where he picked up his first career PGA Tour win, posting a score of -23 at the Black Desert Championship. That win followed three previous victories on the Korn Ferry Tour, and the third instance where he won by carding a score beyond 20-under-par. McCarty seems to have found a groove at this point in the 2025 season, posting top-20 finishes in six of his last 11 starts.
To boot, two of those top-20 finishes have come over his last three, as he’ll come to TPC Deere Run on the heels of a solid T19 showing at the Rocket Classic. The John Deere Classic has been kind to young debutants like McCarty before, and he figures to be in the mix yet again this week.
Max McGreevy:
One of the biggest surprises in my model this week, McGreevy appears to be far more due for a high finish than his most recent results would otherwise suggest. He ranks No. 1 in the field in Prox: 100-150, where a majority of the approaches tend to funnel to at TPC Deere Run. He also ranks top-25 in terms of SGL T2G, SG: OTT, SG: Ball Striking, and SG: APP over the last 36 rounds.
McGreevy’s best results this season have come in the easiest of scoring conditions, with top-25 finishes at the CJ Cup Byron Nelson, Zurich Classic, Cognizant Classic, and Mexico Open — each rewarding birdies in bunches. McGreevy ranks top-25 in this field in Birdies or Better Gained and SG: TOT (Easy Scoring Conditions), making for an appealing sleeping pick in placement markets and fantasy formats.
Karl Vilips:
While not the most inspiring of efforts at the Rocket Classic last week, I’m willing to give Vilips a pass for some anomalies on the greens. He managed to four-putt not once, but twice in his opening round – a feat I do not expect him to repeat at TPC Deere Run. On the brighter side, Vilips is one of the few in this field who can say they’ve successfully conquered a tournament in the easiest of scoring conditions. He went deep at the Puerto Rico Open earlier this season, notching his first career victory at 26-under-par.
The John Deere Classic has been kind to young up-and-coming talents with players like Jordan Spieth, Bryson DeChambeau, and Davis Thompson picking up their first career wins here. Vilips slots in as a similar profile as Luke Clanton, Michael Thorbjornsen, and Ludvig Aberg, who leaned on their extreme length off the tee to contend in their John Deere Classic debuts.
Vilips is a bit less polished as a prospect, but he will come to TPC Deere Run with far more confidence, having already notched a PGA Tour win.
Best of luck if you choose to roster these John Deere Classic golf DFS picks!
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