John Deere Betting Odds, Picks, Outright Predictions: Best Bets, Props, OAD
This week, the PGA Tour arrives in Silvis, Ill., for the 2025 John Deere Classic at TPC Deere Run. All of the best players in the world have already made their travel arrangements elsewhere in advance of the Genesis Scottish Open, which gives the John Deere Classic odds board a wide-open feel. Ben Griffin, Jason Day, and Denny McCarthy aren’t the most appealing headliners, but there’s still plenty of value to exploit.
Let’s run through my betting card for the John Deere Classic odds. For a full breakdown of this event and course, visit my John Deere Classic preview.
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How I Built My John Deere Classic Betting Card
Similar to the Rocket Mortgage Classic last week, there are many paths to success at TPC Deere Run’s forgiving layout. The absence of an imposing favorite lends me to construct a much longer card of exposure to longshots with history scoring in easy scoring conditions and who possess the upside to win this tournament with their putter alone.
From a unit allocation standpoint, it’s back to business as usual for my weekly stake at the 2025 John Deere Classic.
John Deere Classic Bets: Outrights (3.50 Units)
Jason Day
My Bet: +2500
Best Available Odds:
I deliberated all week on where to start my outright card, but all roads continued to point me back to Day. Relative to the other favorites in this field, Day’s pedigree and ability to close down the stretch are second to none. In that regard, he reminds me a bit of Lucas Glover ahead of his 2021 John Deere Classic win, where he simply out-experienced the competition down the closing stretch.
A win from Day would be far less surprising than Glover’s victory here, however, as Day is trending in great all-around form, and is one of the best putters in this field. That’s crucial at a putting contest like this, so I’ll side with the veteran who ranks top-10 in SG: Putting (L36 round and Bentgrass greens) over the other unproven winners priced around him.
Kevin Yu
My Bet: +3500
Best Available Odds:
A phantom withdrawal from last week’s Rocket Classic was the only thing stopping me from immediately pulling the trigger on Yu this week. While his withdrawal was listed for undisclosed reasons, all indications point towards him being fully healthy and ready to go at the John Deere Classic. He’ll look to sustain his hot form with two top-5 finishes over his last five starts.
This hot stretch is a credit to some magic he’s found with his putter. Yu has consistently been one of the top ball-strikers on TOUR, and has finally started to pay that off by gaining strokes on the greens in four of his last five starts.
A winner at the Sanderson Farms Championship last fall, Yu has shown us that easy scoring conditions bring out the best in his game.
Alex Smalley
My Bet: +5000
Best Available Odds:
As my featured spotlight player of the week, I have confidence that birdie fest conditions will bring out the best in Smalley’s game. I’m especially confident in Smalley on TPC Deere Run, where he displayed his best career performance, finishing T2 here in 2023. Seemingly all of Smalley’s best results have come in birdie fest conditions, and he’s knocked on the door plenty of times in 2025, with eight top-25 finishes this season.
Smalley ranks No. 3 overall in my model, and although he’s struggled to close out tournaments to date, he has all the tools to play into contention again this week.
Keith Mitchell
My Bet: +6000
Best Available Odds:
We’ve been down this road too many times at this point, but it’s rare to find Mitchell in a buy-low spot at palatable odds in a weak field. Mitchell ranks No. 5 overall in my model this week, with form that has not departed far from the days when he would be available at half this price in a field like this.
He remains one of the most consistent approach players in the field, and ranks top-15 in SG: APP, SG: Ball Striking, Par 5 Scoring, Birdies or Better Gained, and SG: TOT (Easy Scoring Conditions). He’s shown great form here over the years as well, posting two top-20 finishes over his first four John Deere Classic starts.
Emiliano Grillo
My Bet: +7500
Best Available Odds:
Elite approach play translates anywhere on the tour, but on a second-shot course like TPC Deere Run, it can prove to be a great separator. Grillo ranks No. 1 in the field in SG: Ball Striking and No. 3 in SG: APP, and has paid that fit off at TPC Deere Run before.
He finished T2 in his 2022 debut here and has since picked up a PGA Tour victory on yet another short and positional venue at the 2023 Charles Schwab Challenge. His putter is starting to percolate now, so if that continues, he’ll have ample birdie looks this week.
Matt McCarty
My Bet: +8000
Best Available Odds:
One of the trendiest bets of the week across the community, McCarty is available at a great number considering his fit on easy scoring venues, current form, and history at birdie fests. McCarty won four times last season, three coming on the Korn Ferry Tour before picking up his first career PGA Tour win at the Black Desert Championship.
A need for birdies in bunches is the throughline across all of those victories, so this figures to be a great buy-low spot for McCarty. He’s turned it up a gear in the second half of this season with six top-20 finishes.
Max McGreevy
My Bet: +11000
Best Available Odds:
McGreevy was one of the biggest surprise risers in my model this week, as his underlying metrics have been far better than the results he’s had to show for them in the 2025 season. That suggests to me that he is due for a breakout soon. McGreevy ranks No. 1 in the field in Prox: 100-150, the key range where a majority of approaches funnel to at TPC Deere Run. He also ranks top-15 in SG: Ball-Striking, SG: OTT, and SG: TOT (Easy Scoring Conditions).
Longshots are always viable at the John Deere Classic, and McGreevy’s game is trending in the right direction coming in.
Karl Vilips
My Bet: +18000
Best Available Odds:
Already a winner on the tour in his rookie season, Vilips showed his ability to go low in birdie fest conditions with his win at the Puerto Rico Open in March. He profiles as a bomber with spike approach upside, which should translate well at TPC Deere Run.
Young up-and-coming talents of a similar profile, such as Luke Clanton, Michael Thorbjornsen, and Chris Gotterup, have all found success in their John Deere Classic debuts, so it would not surprise me to see Vilips follow suit.
John Deere Classic Bets: First-Round Leader (0.70 Units)
Kevin Yu
My Bet: +5500
Best Available Odds:
Yu’s elite ball-striking form will amount to ample birdie opportunities at TPC Deere Run, as he ranks as one of the best total drivers in this field. A win at the Sanderson Farms supports that he has no problems going low, and a newly cooperative putter should be unlike a new ceiling for him.
Alex Smalley
My Bet: +6000
Best Available Odds:
I have reservations about whether Smalley can close a golf tournament under pressure, but I remain confident he has all the skills needed to contend at TPC Deere Run. That amounts to an ideal first-round leader bet, as Smalley will be playing with confidence at the opening round on a course he has finished runner-up at in the past.
Emiliano Grillo
My Bet: +7500
Best Available Odds:
A known birdie-maker in the easiest of scoring conditions, Grillo’s elite iron play and precision off the tee should lead to ample birdie looks on this second-shot golf course. He’s gradually improved his putting form of late, too, making for an even higher ceiling to go low in round one.
Keith Mitchell
My Bet: +7500
Best Available Odds:
It feels like a long time ago that Mitchell was the most automatic opening-round player on the PGA Toru. In reality, we’re only a month or two removed from that form, and he remains one of the best iron players in this field. He just needs a hot round with the putter to pay this off.
Max McGreevy
My Bet: +9000
Best Available Odds:
I am much higher on the market on McGreevy this week, so I’m hedging my exposure in the FRL market as well. McGreevy is an elite wedge player in this field and is at his best in easy, birdie-fest conditions where birdies in bunches are needed.
John Deere Classic Bets: Props (2.60 Units)
Full Tournament Matchup: Denny McCarthy Over JT Poston
My Bet: -110
I am actively targeting Poston this week, as I feel his course history has grossly over-inflated his odds. Poston’s success at this event has been a direct result of his form leading in, which has been lacking in 2025. He’s failed to crack the top 30 in each of his last four starts. McCarthy, on the other hand, has been one of the most consistent players in this field at TPC Deere Run, and also enters in terrific form.
Top-20 Finish: Emiliano Grillo
My Bet: +300
Best Available Odds:
Grillo has already proven to be up to the task at the John Deere Classic, finishing T2 here in 2022. He’s been a top-20 machine as well of late, finishing top-20 in four of his last five starts.
Top-20 Finish: Matt McCarty
My Bet: +300
Best Available Odds:
Similar to Grillo, McCarty has also been on a tear with top-20 finishes, posting six in his last 11 starts. He has the game needed to go low at TPC Deere Run, and debutants have never had much issue acclimating quickly here.
Golf DFS Contests
Check out my column on golf DFS picks for the John Deere Classic on Underdog Fantasy, along with traditional DFS contests.
One & Done
My Pick: Denny McCarthy
I’ve already used Griffin and Day through this point of the OAD season, so I’m taking the pragmatic approach and slotting in the next best man I have available: McCarthy. A short, second-shot course with oversized greens, TPC Deere Run has all the makings of a putting contest, which may ultimately come down to who can sink the most 20-foot birdies.
I like McCarthy’s chances in this scenario, as he is head and shoulders above the rest of the field from a putting pedigree standpoint. We won’t see McCarthy as a top-5 favorite again this season. With a pair of T6 finishes over his last two John Deere Classic starts, it’s as good a time as ever to roll out McCarthy in OAD.
If not McCarthy, I would also consider playing Kevin Yu, Luke Clanton, or Michael Thorbjornsen in OAD.
That’s a wrap for this week’s golf bets. Best of luck navigating through the John Deere Classic odds! See you on Sunday for the Genesis Scottish Open preview.
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John Deere Classic Bets: The Card
Full John Deere Classic Odds Board
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