John Deere Classic Odds & Betting Preview: Early Bets & Picks, Including Longshot Smalley
Nothing runs like a Deere, and, in the case of TPC Deere Run, there’s truly nothing else quite like it on the PGA Tour. My namesake’s tournament is next on the tour schedule. We head to Silvis, Ill., for the 2025 John Deere Classic in a tournament bereft of star power that truly is wide open for the taking. In this article, we’ll look ahead at the John Deere Classic odds, favorites, trends, and key stats for your tournament research.
Although the best players in the world usually skip this event in favor of a travel week over the pond, it always seems to produce great drama and log-jammed leaderboards with players of diverse skill sets. TPC Deere Run is not a challenging course by any means, but the presence of undulated fairways, steep elevation changes, and tight doglegs requires players to use every club in their bag, placing slightly more of a premium on ball striking and short game than a typical birdie-fest.
Expecting continued low scoring, I’m looking for a balance of Birdie or Better Gained, SG: TOT (Easy Scoring Conditions), SG: Ball Striking, Good Drives Gained, and Comp Course History on other similar short and easy courses. This venue should reward the most precise ball strikers, who are able to convert a volume of birdie looks.
Let’s review the key facts and information for the TPC Deere Run and determine where there’s value among John Deere Classic odds.
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John Deere Classic Betting Odds
The Field At A Glance
The John Deere Classic is always a natural bye week for the world’s best. Before the introduction of the Scottish Open on the TOUR schedule in 2022, this event was always slotted the week prior to The Open Championship, with final qualifying spots and a charter flight across the pond up for grabs for top-three finishers. With a trip to the U.K. still looming for next week’s Genesis Scottish Open, all the best players in the world once again bypassed Silvis to prep for the final major of the year.
In what may be the weakest field of the PGA Tour season to date, it is World No. 17, Ben Griffin, who headlines as the expected favorite this week. He is joined by just five others inside the OWGR top 50: Jason Day, Sungjae Im, Denny McCarthy, and Lucas Glover. Notably, each of these top-6 players was in the field for the 2024 John Deere Classic, with each finishing inside the top-30. So, it’s clear the headliners enjoy coming to the Quad Cities and have expectations to contend this week.
Davis Thompson picked up his maiden tour victory at this event last year, continuing a trend of rising young talents picking up their first career victory at the John Deere Classic. JT Poston, Lucas Glover, Dylan Frittelli, Zach Johnson, and Michael Kim to round out the list of past champions in the field this week. Former champions, Sepp Straka and Jordan Spieth, are notably absent after playing in this event in 2024.
Introduction To TPC Deere Run
TPC Deere Run is a fun course in the Quad Cities between Illinois and Iowa. This event has historically been kind to local Midwesterners. Players like Zach Johnson, Steve Stricker, and Adam Schenk have enjoyed putting on a show for local fans.
In its 52-year history on TOUR, the event has consistently produced dramatic and climactic finishes. Similar to the Travelers, we’ve come to expect playoffs and one-stroke victories. Winners have emerged from a playoff or one stroke 16 times since 2000, although that gap has widened in the past couple of years.
Because top players routinely choose to skip this event, it’s also been a launching pad for young players. Jordan Spieth secured his first here, holing out from the greenside bunker on 18 to force a playoff at the age of 19. Davis Thompson, Bryson DeChambeau, Dylan Frittelli, Michael Kim, and Brian Harman also notched their first career wins at this event.
It’s a great time to cast aside “win equity” from an outright betting perspective and a great opportunity for the mid-tier players on TOUR. Debutants like Luke Clanton, Sam Stevens, Jacob Bridgeman, and Michael Thorbjornsen, who are still in search of their first PGA Tour wins, have a great opportunity ahead of themselves in the Quad Cities.
With fairways and greens above average in size, this represents yet another week where the players with the hottest irons and putting will rise to the top of the leaderboard. While course history is relatively not predictive here, results on other short-course birdie fests have served as a strong indicator of better results at the John Deere Classic. In 2022, JT Poston won this event the week after finishing T2 at the Travelers Championship, despite having no finishes better than T64 in four prior John Deere Classic starts.
Course History & Course Comparisons
With wide fairways, large greens, and weak fields, accurate ball strikers consistently find success at this event. Course history has been a mixed bag, but there are certain archetypes of players who are comfortable on these greens and can repeatedly dial up the same formula of fairways and greens in regulation needed to keep pace with the low scoring at this event.
Generally speaking, it’s taken players one or two years of prior experience to see the course before they’ve gone on to win. But there are always exceptions, as Dylan Frittelli won in his 2019 debut. Ludvig Aberg impressed with a T4 finish in his first John Deere Classic appearance in 2023. Michael Thorbjornsen and Luke Clanton each spared no time acclimating, both finishing T2 in their debuts last year.
Looking at recent John Deere Classic results, only six players have had multiple T15 finishes over the last five years. That list includes Lucas Glover, Seamus Power, Denny McCarthy, Mark Hubbard, Adam Schenk, and JT Poston
Just five players avoided missing the cut over each of the last five years (min. three appearances): Seamus Power, Mark Hubbard, Adam Svensson, Zach Johnson, and Sungjae Im.
The top 10 players in Course History at TPC Deere Run are Davis Thompson, Michael Thorbjornsen, Luke Clanton, Lucas Glover, Ben Griffin, Seamus Power, Denny McCarthy, Kevin Yu, Zach Johnson, and Hayden Springer. That paints a very clear course profile picture of accurate approach specialists with spike-putting upside and proven results on comp short positional courses who are best suited to attack TPC Deere Run.
TPC Deere Run Comps
As a par-71 at just over 7,200 yards, TPC Deere Run is short by tour standards. Still, it features too many long par 3s and par 4s beyond 450 yards to be classified with all other short TOUR courses. With tight tree lines and thick rough that force layups, the formula players have used to find success on other short courses should translate well.
You won’t have to look far to find the top comp course this week, as the last two host venues on the PGA Tour really do embody all of the relevant characteristics of TPC Deere Run. Both TPC River Highlands and Detroit Golf Club feature tree lines, a premium on accurate ball striking, and thick, penal rough surrounding the fairways and greens. At the Travelers Championship, in particular, Jordan Spieth has had repeated crossover success, along with Bryson DeChambeau, Daniel Berger, Brian Harman, Kevin Streelman, and JT Poston.
In addition to TPC River Highlands and Detroit Golf Club, I’m also referencing TPC Twin Cities, TPC Craig Ranch, Country Club of Jackson, and Oakdale Golf & Country Club as easy but less positional golf courses where a driver-heavy approach can still position players with ample birdie opportunities.
But, for accurate ball strikers like Poston, Berger, and Zach Johnson, a fairway-heavy approach will work well here, too. For that reason, courses like Pebble Beach GL and Sedgefield CC also serve as strong comp courses.
Combine performance across this list and the top 10 players in Comp Course History at TPC Deere Run are: Eric Cole, Denny McCarthy, Seamus Power, Mark Hubbard, Sungjae Im, Jason Day, JT Poston, Luke Clanton, Si Woo Kim, and Hayden Springer.
Key Stats To Consider With John Deere Classic Odds
- SG: APP/SG: BS
- SG: ARG
- Birdies or Better Gained
- Good Drives Gained
- Par-4 Scoring
- Par 5: 550-600
- Prox: 75-150
- SG: TOT (Easy Courses)
- SG: Putting (Bent) / 3-Putt Avoidance
- Course & Comp Course History
The best starting point for me in this mini birdie-fest swing of the season would seem to be isolating Birdies or Better Gained. The top 10 players in Birdie or Better Gained entering this week are: Stephan Jaeger, Jake Knapp, Luke Clanton, Sungjae Im, Alex Smalley, Jesper Svensson, Isaiah Salinda, Joe Highsmith, Kevin Yu, and Si Woo Kim.
Approach performance hasn’t predicted success as much at the John Deere as most other courses, given the larger greens and high Green In Regulation percentage. But, it still stands at a premium in an expected birdie-fest. The 10 best approach players entering this week are: Ben Griffin, Henrik Norlander, Emiliano Grillo, Victor Perez, Bud Cauley, Lucas Glover, Joel Dahmen, John Pak, Sami Valimaki, and Luke Clanton.
At TPC Deere Run, there are few long iron approaches needed; instead, concentrating on the 100-150 yard range. The top 10 in Proximity gained from this range are: Max McGreevy, Andrew Putnam, Lucas Glover, Greyson Sigg, Eric Cole, Emiliano Grillo, Henrik Norlander, Denny McCarthy, and Lee Hodges.
When combining SG: APP, Prox: 75-150, Good Drives Gained, and SG: Ball Striking on Comp Courses to isolate the precise ball strikers, just eight players rank top 40 in each: Lucas Glover, Emiliano Grillo, Doug Ghim, Chris Kirk, Jason Day, Bud Cauley, Ricky Castillo, and Nick Hardy.
Course Fit by Hole Ranges
Par-4 Scoring is a bit of an overrated stat at TPC Deere Run. But given the importance of making putts, and the presence of 11 par 4s, I think it’s a slightly better reference point for recent form than SG: T2G. With the diverse spread of par-4 hole ranges at TPC Deere Run, it should serve as a helpful resource to identify the players who can best position themselves to generate birdies. The top 10 par-4 scorers this week include: Keith Mitchell, Alex Smalley, Taylor Montgomery, Karl Vilips, Jake Knapp, Jesper Svensson, Aldrich Potgieter, Trey Mullinax, Joseph Bramlett, and Si Woo Kim.
Par-5 Scoring from 550-600 rates of particular importance this week. That should favor the players with plus distance who are able to reach in two or more easily capitalize on these birdie opportunities. The top 10 players in Par-5: 550-600 are: Pierceson Coody, Cameron Champ, Lee Hidges, Jesper Svensson, Taylor Moore, Joseph Bramlett, Kevin Yu, Jake Knapp, Michael Thorbjornsen, and Jeremy Paul.
The ideal fit for this course should rank above average in SG: Ball Striking, SG: Short Game, Birdie or Better Gained, Good Drives Gained, SG: TOT (Easy Scoring Conditions), and Comp Course History. There are 11 players in the 2025 field who meet the same criteria: Ben Griffin, Luke Clanton, Si Woo Kim, Chris Gotterup, Rickie Fowler, Lee Hodges, Jake Knapp, Alex Smalley, Kevin Roy, Kevin Yu, and Ricky Castillo.
Correlations
Looking at the correlation charts this week, many of the characteristics we’d come to expect from the average TOUR course continue to pop at TPC Deere Run. The most notable changes compared to the tour average are the de-prioritization of Par-3 Scoring and SG: OTT. With distance advantage mitigated by forced layups and penal rough and scoring opportunities coming predominantly from the par 4s and par 5s, that would all seem to check out.
Instead, SG: ARG, Par-4: 400-450, and Good Drives Gained make the most notable jumps in importance. It’s natural to dismiss around-the-green skillsets on a course that routinely yields winning scores beyond 20-under par. However, players are not completely immune to missing these greens in regulation, and history has shown that avoiding bogeys by scrambling for pars is a necessary skill set at this event.
Top-10 Correlated Stats with SG: TOT
Top-10 Correlated Stats with SG: TOT at TPC Deere Run
There are eight players in the field who rank above average in each of the above 10 key stat categories: Ben Griffin, Luke Clanton, Rico Hoey, Eric Cole, Andrew Putnam, Matt McCarty, Rickie Fowler, and Kevin Roy.
- 2025 John Deere Classic: Golf DFS Longshot Picks
Player Spotlight Among John Deere Classic Odds: Alex Smalley ()
Smalley in the small town of Silvis has a nice ring to it, and he’s proven up to the task of contending in the Quad Cities before. The 28-year-old from North Carolina is still chasing his first career tour win, but with many close calls along the way in comparable birdie fest conditions, he fits the profile of many other up-and-coming players who have notched their first victory at the John Deere Classic.
Smalley’s best career performance came at this event in 2023, where he finished T2 after being run down by a white hot Sepp Straka on Sunday. Smalley’s high finish at the 2023 John Deere Classic is just one of many examples of him elevating his play in the easiest of scoring conditions.
It takes a completely different mentality knowing you have to push beyond 20-under-par to win a golf tournament, but Smalley has had no issues going low in his career. He’s posted seven top-20 finishes this season, with his best results coming at The American Express and Mexico Open, two of the easiest scoring events of the season.
Smalley ranks No. 3 overall in my model this week, with top-5 ranks in SG: TOT (Easy Scoring Conditions), Birdies or Better Gained, SG: T2G, and SG: TOT (L16 rounds). In far improved form since this time last year, I expect a great showing this time around for Smalley, who will be a fixture on my 2025 John Deere Classic betting card.
John Deere Classic Odds: DFS Player Pool
With all the course-fit profiles in mind, I’m leaning early toward the below player pool. Naturally, I’m looking their way in the 2025 John Deere Classic odds as well. I’ve broken the list down by projected pricing and odds tier for DraftKings Sportsbook.
Tier 1
- Ben Griffin
- Denny McCarthy
- Jason Day
Tier 2
- Luke Clanton
- Lucas Glover
- Chris Kirk
- Bud Cauley
- Keith Mitchell
- Chris Gotterup
Tier 3
- Ryo Hisatsune
- Eric Cole
- Emiliano Grillo
- Lee Hodges
- Kevin Yu
- Alex Smalley
Tier 4
- Seamus Power
- Isaiah Salinda
- Henrik Norlander
- Sam Stevens
- Doug Ghim
- Andrew Putnam
Tier 5
- Max McGreevy
- Matt McCarty
- Ricky Castillo
- Kevin Roy
John Deere Classic Odds: Model Results
Betting Model Breakdown
In my model, I’m emphasizing Comp Course History, SG: APP, Prox: 75-150, Par-5: 550-600, and SG: Putting (L36, Bent, 3-Putt Avoidance), followed by a more balanced mix of Birdies or Better Gained, SG: TOT (Easy Scoring Conditions), SG: ARG, SG: P and SG: TOT (L12 Rounds), and Good Drives Gained.
Model Favorites
Not too surprisingly, on a course that asks many of the same questions as Detroit Golf Club (Can you make a birdie here? Can you make a birdie there?), Ben Griffin holds the No. 1 spot in my model for a second consecutive week. Griffin has continued his tear since chasing more speed and gaining more distance off the tee and will come to the Quad Cities as the hottest player in the field with six consecutive top-20 finishes.
After Griffin, the rest of my model’s top 10 is rounded out by: Luke Clanton, Alex Smalley, Emiliano Grillo, Keith Mitchell, Kevin Yu, Jason Day, Lucas Glover, Bud Cauley, and JT Poston.
There is not one single player I feel I have to build my card around this week when odds open on Monday, so I’ll likely take a reactive approach after seeing how the board falls. Many of the same players I liked at the Rocket Mortgage Classic, like Ben Griffin, Maverick, Keith Mitchell, Lee Hodges, and Kevin Yu, are still bounce-back considerations for me at presumably better odds. Alex Smalley, Emiliano Grillo, Jason Day, and Chris Gotterup also stand out as potential values.
Check back in later this week for more updates, and best of luck navigating the 2025 John Deere Classic odds!
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